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July 09, 2010

The Pragmatic “Pacific President”
Posted by Jacob Stokes

Obama_Asia Newsweek has a story up by Joshua Kurlantzick entitled, “How Obama Lost His Asian Friends.” The piece brings some much-needed focus back on America’s relationship with East Asia and away from the immediate crises in the Middle East and South Asia. Aside from that shift though, the article has some significant flaws. Kurlantzick argues that, after some early successes and sweeping rhetoric about being the first “Pacific President,” Obama has allowed America’s allies in the region to languish.

As evidence of this, Kurlantzick offers the Administration’s about-face on the South Korea free trade deal, which, he admits, “would create the most important American trade deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement.” At no point does Kurlantzick mention the fact that the trade deal represents an important gesture on the part of the Administration to show solidarity with South Korea in the wake of the Cheonan sinking by the North. There’s not much else America can do (except for maybe a highly misguided use of force) to show support for our allies in the region as they face real threats, especially when China refuses to call out Pyongyang.

The piece also suggests that Obama made a mistake in cancelling his trip to Indonesia three times, two of which were used to make a final push on the healthcare bill and to deal with the BP oil spill, respectively. While it’s certainly unfortunate that these trips had to be cancelled, if you hold even a modicum of support for Barack Obama—which, I don’t know, maybe Kurlantzick doesn’t, and that’s fine—it’s easy to see why those two actions were essential to maintaining his strength at home.

Healthcare needed a final push and the optics of Obama cavorting abroad  (with whomever, allies or not) would have allowed the president’s domestic opponents to wipe the floor with him. America’s allies in Asia are much better served with Obama having strong support at home than they are feeling individually satisfied while Obama’s domestic support flounders. (All this despite whatever completely objective observer Walter Lohman at Heritage, who the piece quotes, thinks.)

What’s more, as Liz Economy points out over at Asia Unbound, Kurlantzick’s sense of how damaging these trip cancellations are to public opinion in Asia is skewed at best:
Josh’s handwringing over the negative perceptions of the United States throughout the region seems misplaced. The 2010 Pew Research Center polling data reports the United States garnering a 66 percent favorability rating in India, 66 percent in Japan, and a whopping 79 percent in South Korea, reflecting, perhaps, the close relationship between Presidents Obama and Lee. Even Indonesia, where as Josh rightly points out the President has squandered significant good will by cancelling his state visit three times, offers up a 59 percent approval rating.
The whole piece is really summed up by two quotes Kurlantzick uses as examples of the region’s opinion of Obama. Early in the piece, he quotes Lee Kuan Yew saying, “If you [the U.S.] do not hold your ground in the Pacific, you cannot be a world leader.” Kurlantzick then goes on to whine about how Obama didn’t let a vacillating, anti-American Democratic Party of Japan roll him on marine bases. Later Kurlantzick quotes Japanese lawmaker Kuniko Tanoika as saying, “the very stubborn attitude of no compromise of the U.S. government… is clearly pushing Japan away, towards China.”  As Economy notes in her post, this is a highly flawed proposition. Japan may increase its ties with China, but it’s not likely to turn away from the U.S. anytime soon. The basing issue was an attempt at that, and it failed miserably.

Kurlantzick is basically saying that America should do whatever its allies in the region ask, no matter how ridiculous it is, while pushing back against anything China tries to do in order to stand our ground in the region. The Obama administration is practicing a much more nuanced diplomacy than what Kurlantzick suggests, one that’s obviously willing to support allies and stand up to China and North Korea. We’ve seen this with the South Korea trade agreement, a series of trade disputes with China and threats to label China a currency manipulator. But Obama’s strategy is also one that realizes compromise is necessary sometimes.

The Administration’s Asia policy is not perfect, but Obama is hardly ignoring the region and hanging America’s friends out to dry – no matter how good of a Newsweek headline that idea makes.

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"America’s allies in Asia are much better served with Obama having strong support at home than they are feeling individually satisfied while Obama’s domestic support flounders. "

In the abstract you are correct. However, this point translates poorly when applied to reality. Successful Presidents can walk and chew gum. Every Presidency is moving some initiative (or ideally, many initiatives) on both the international and the national stage. There will always be something on the domestic scene worthy of the President's attention.

This last case is particularly galling in that the President's diversion to the South was an unnecessary affair. It did not strengthen his domestic support. It did nothing to help end the deepwater horizon crisis - and it should not have been expected to.

The decision to skip out on this last Asian trip was a mistake, and we will all be better off when our analyst class recognizes this.

For those interested, Fareed Zakaria made this same case much better than I can quite recently. His words are worth the hearing.

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Well written article.Here I would like to say that in U.S. the danger isn't the rise of China or India or the other nations of Asia. The danger to the U.S. is trillions and trillions of dollars of corrupt spending, debt, and printed money.

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