Some Imagination About Afghanistan Strategy Posted by Michael Cohen

Over at Politico, Robert Blackwell who was deputy national security advisor in the Bush Administration lays out a possible alternative to our present strategy in Afghanistan.

After years of faulty U.S. policy toward Afghanistan, there are no quick, easy and cost-free  ways to escape the current deadly quagmire. But with all its problems, a de facto partition offers the best available U.S. alternative to strategic defeat. Announcing that we will retain an active combat role in Afghanistan for years to come and that we do not accept permanent Taliban control of the south, the United States and its allies could withdraw combat forces from most of Pashtun Afghanistan (about half the country), including Kandahar, over several months. 

. . . We would then focus on defending the north and west regions -- roughly 60 percent of the population. These areas, including Kabul, are not Pashtun-dominated and locals are largely sympathetic to U.S. efforts. 

. . . We would then make it clear that we would rely heavily on U.S. air power and special forces to target any Al Qaida base in Afghanistan, as well as Afghan Taliban leaders who aided them. We would also target Afghan Taliban encroachments across the de facto partition lines and terrorist sanctuaries along the Pakistan border. 

We would continue accelerating our Afghan army training. We would devote nation-building efforts to the north and west region where, unlike the Pashtun, people are not conflicted about accepting U.S. help and not systematically coerced by the Taliban. 

This approach is similar to what Gilles Dorronsorro has been saying for a while and what I argued for last spring in the pages of Dissent. Now Blackwell's strategy isn't perfect and he highlights some of the problems with this strategy - reluctance by the Karzai government to go along; the potential for jihadist safe havens to pop up in Taliban areas; Pakistani resistance (although on this point I'm a bit skeptical that the Pakistanis would be that upset, especially if they their interests in Afghanistan were protected); and of course human rights in Taliban-dominated areas would be "abysmal."

But these problems notwithstanding, defacto partition is almost certainly where things are heading in Afghanistan; we can't defeat the Taliban and the Taliban likely can't take over the country. But the key to make such a strategy work is, as Blackwell suggests, to make clear that the US will not leave the country until the Karzai government and its military is strong enough to maintain its rule. Blackwell talks about maintaining US troop levels of between 40 and 50,000, which seems very high to me. But whatever the number the US should make clear its long-term commitment to Afghanistan's security and stability . . . just not to nation-building. At the same time, US policymakers must make clear that its most important and non-negotiable redline is no al Qaeda presence of any kind in Taliban-controlled areas.

Whether you agree or disagree with Blackwell's strategy - or any of the alternatives that have been floated - it's becoming increasingly clear that the change in course will have to come. The current strategy isn't working and it unlikely to be any more successful in the future - not without a significant and unjustifiable outlay of US blood and treasure.

To be sure, we should have been talking about some of these alternatives a year ago . . . but better late than never.

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We have no grasp of the Afghanistan societal structure - It's tribal.
They have never had a strong central government, although they had a king (still do, he's in exile) he had only marginal authority.
Without the support of the tribal leaders we will go nowhere. A loosely defined war against "terrorist" and the Taliban doesn't mean diddly squat to the Afghan people.
On top of it all we have to deal with Karsi who has the moral fiber of Pablo Escobar, an insatiable greed and is completely corrupt. It's a no win war; the only moral strategy is to get our ass out of there.

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Without the support of the tribal leaders we will go nowhere. A loosely defined war against "terrorist" and the Taliban doesn't mean diddly squat to the Afghan people.

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The Pashtun south and the ethnically diverse north are really two different countries and a de facto partition has existed for decades. The Northern Alliance opposed the Taliban from the get go and are unlikely to tolerate them now. They also consider the US allies rather than enemies.
The cockroach in the cheese dip is Karsi, a Pashtun, whose interest is keeping himself and his relative/cronies wealthy and maintaining the thriving and lucrative Opium trade.
If we must stay (and I don't think we should) it should be to support and protect the north and get out of the south an let it go its own way. If that means Taliban rule that's their choice - a bad choice but theirs to take.

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