Looking forward to 2021 Posted by Jacob Stokes

There’s a great piece out in the newest issue of Democracy Journal entitled “America 2021: The Military and the World.” The piece features CAP’s Larry Korb, P.W. Singer of Brookings, Rand’s Robert Hunter and NSN’s Heather Hurlburt, and it’s moderated by E.J. Dionne. They all sat down for lunch one day and had a loosely structured conversation based on the topic: In what state will America be in 2021 vis-à-vis the rest of the world and the military? The predictions—especially considering the current soda straw focus of the national security community on Afghanistan and terrorism—are a stark call to action, a reminder that we need to step back and open our eyes to the world as it's changing.

The conversation considers which countries are important to us, where terrorism will fall on our list of threats, what posture the military should take and what experiences will have shaped how leaders of 2021 view the world. In order to convince you to read the whole thing, I’m throwing in a few out-of-context excerpts that can give a flavor of what’s in the piece, the sort of big-picture thinking that’s going to be needed when we get to 2021. Enjoy:

Robert Hunter: We do have some compatible interests with the Iranians. We can explore–we’re not prepared to, but we could–whether in Iraq they would be able to support an outcome there that is not dysfunctional. We know they have worked with us in the past on Afghanistan. They helped us overthrow the Taliban, because they were on the Taliban’s hit list. They’re on the Al Qaeda hit list now. We’ve been unprepared to say to the Iranians: "If you behave ourselves and just do everything we want, we will give you security guarantees." We won’t do it. Every country that’s gotten the atom bomb has done so primarily for security reasons, yet we’re not prepared to explore that angle.

Larry Korb: I’d increase Special Forces, and I’d downplay nuclear weapons. There’s a great article in Strategic Studies Quarterly in which three experts say we can cut the number of nukes to 311. That’s incredible. The other thing I’d do is buy more existing equipment instead of spending so much on new next-generation conventional weapons. That would actually modernize our forces more rapidly and more completely. I also think you want to develop a long-range bomber so you’d be able to project power from the United States without putting people on the ground like we’ve done.

P.W. Singer: : It’s important not to approach [terrorism] as something that we don’t have any control over, that what happens in ten years is unknowable and we can’t see it. We have an enormous amount of control over how we structure our own thinking and talking about resilience and response. Because, as you say, as people are empowered to do all kinds of things outside traditional government structures, the potential for lethality will grow. But the potential for lethality to equal societal disruption doesn’t have to grow along with it. In fact, it can shrink and go back down as people see what we can absorb. On the other hand, if somebody detonated a nuclear weapon, that would change everything.

Heather Hurlburt: In 2021, the president will need a mix of tools to help him or her deal with a resurgent China, which will have gotten much further along with its economy and its military. But China will also be facing tremendous crises at home, dealing with demographic and environmental concerns, as well as other internal political issues that get expressed externally. In dealing with China, India, and Pakistan, the president will discover that our civilian toolbox has further atrophied. And just about anything the president wants to, whether it’s military or not, will have to be done through the Department of Defense, because that will be the last adequately resourced part of our international affairs structure.

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