Alternatives on Afghanistan . . . Yes Virginia, They Exist
Posted by Michael Cohen
Responding to my recent TNR piece, Gregg Carlstrom argues that part of the reason the left has been silent on Afghanistan is that there aren't really many good alternatives - other than stay the course or withdrawal.
But this is a problematic arguments on two accounts. As I noted at TNR, "for the left to argue that there are still no good alternatives on Afghanistan is an implicit indictment of their own failure to come up with one." It's not as if the left hasn't been calling for more resources to be devoted to the Afghan fight since what, 2004? In six years, you'd think there would be a few other ideas out there other than COIN and withdrawal.
Yet, at the same time there are people out there floating alternatives to our current policy - most of whom are not generally associated with the left. At Carnegie Endowment, Gilles Dorronosorro has been a lone voice in the think tank world calling for a change in strategy. In this recent piece he makes the case for political negotiations.
Last fall, Austin Grant Long laid out what a counter-terrorism strategy in Afghanistan might look like.
Here's Sean Kay arguing for containment, rather than COIN.
And here are two pieces yours truly has written: one calling for a regional prioritization approach and thus a smaller US military footprint in the South and a focus on strengthening the Karzai government in the North and West. The other arguing that the US should pivot quickly from the planned, if misguided, offensive in Kandahar to political negotiations.
You may not agree that all these approaches are good ideas or even have a chance of success . . . personally I like some combination of all of them; a mix of containment, continued CT efforts, particularly in Pakistan, a pullback of troops from the South and focus on consolidating efforts in the North and West and an immediate move toward political negotiations.
But the argument that there is a black and white choice between withdrawal and staying the COIN course is simply not accurate and does not reflect the intellectual ferment occurring on the question of strategic alternatives for Afghanistan.
You need people who can implement one of these with a level of confidence they can at least fake to rival those who claim some amount of confidence in COIN (hedged as it definitely is). Which generals get which promotions to put them in a position to o one of these?
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