As Palestinians Go to the Polls, Peace Holds its Breath

January 22, 2006

As Palestinians Go to the Polls, Peace Holds its Breath
Posted by Suzanne Nossel

This January is claiming a place in Middle East history as a critical turning point for relations between Israelis and Palestinians and for peace prospects in the region. Ariel Sharon - who had improbably emerged as the region's best chance for reaching a final political settlement - lies in a deep coma. His heir apparent, former Jerusalem mayor Ehud Olmert, has been making all the right noises and seems ready to assume Sharon's mantle as a fearless leader hellbent on moving Israel forward.

On Wednesday, Palestinians will vote in Parliamentary elections that could determine whether Sharon is remembered as a Moses who led his people to the edge of the promised land, or a fleeting blip of hope amid decades of violent conflict. Hamas has been steadily gaining on Fatah in political polls, largely because of Mahmoud Abbas' failure to root out corruption and address some of the most basic frustrations and indignities of life in the Palestinian territories.

Hamas has called for Israel's destruction, has sponsored dozens of deadly suicide attacks, and professes unwillingness to negotiate with Israel. Some, including Abbas and Condi Rice, believe that electoral victory may prompt Hamas' transition from a violent militia to a legitimate political organization, but this may be just wishful thinking. For Palestinians, the attraction to Hamas may be motivated just as much by the party's reputation for delivering quality social services and refusing to tolerate corruption as it is by the group's stance on Israel.

Meanwhile Fatah is in internal disarray and its always loose grip on terrorist activity and basic law and order in the territories is slipping. Fatah is expected to pull off a narrow victory, but with a slim margin and a strong showing by Hamas, the party is unlikely to get a mandate to continue negotiating with Israel.

The Palestinian ballot will be followed in late March by new Israeli elections. If Hamas does well, worried Israelis may well pull back from Sharon and Olmert's forward-leaning Kadima party preferring the hardline and security-minded Likud instead. If that happens Israel's new Prime Minister will be Benjamin Netanyahu, literally setting the region back to where it was ten years ago.

Overall, the outlook is pretty bleak. It's hard to see how an already vulnerable Abbas doesn't end up even weaker after Wednesday, and how that doesn't unravel the fragile hopes Sharon spun.

What to conclude?

- Significance of Corruption - A colleague recently pointed out that on the basis of her research on human rights violations in Africa, corruption is at the root of a great portion of what goes wrong in conflict-wracked places. Fatah's reputation for nepotism and skimming may doom prospects for a group that - by every objective measure - is better placed to deliver prosperity and stability to the Palestinian people than is Hamas. This underscores the importance of corruption as a geopolitical problem not getting its due.

- Prospects for New Palestinian Leadership - The NY Times' Tom Friedman wrote a couple of weeks ago about the need for an Arab Sharon. In this piece I looked at whether jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti - a convicted terrorist with an improbable reputation for clean government, pragmatism, and the ability to do business reliably with Israeli interlocutors - could conceivably play such a role.

- Dilemma for the West - If, as expected, Hamas features prominently in a new Palestinian government, the US and Europe will face a thorny dilemma in deciding how to relate to an avowed terrorist organization that bears the stamp of democratic legitimacy, and plays a prominent role in governing a Palestinian Authority which receives hundreds of millions a year in US financial support. The answer may lie in dangling a huge carrot of increased aid to jumpstart the Palestinian economy in return for a commitment from Hamas to renounce violence. Hard to judge whether such a bargain could conceivably hold.

January 22, 2006 at 05:05 PM in Middle East | Permalink

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January 22, 2006