During her confirmation hearings, Secretary of State Condi Rice said "the time for diplomacy is now." The sad thing is, it isn't working. A dizzying schedule of trips abroad and a new tone coming from Foggy Bottom have not pulled American diplomacy out of crisis.
The strains in our relationships, our diminished influence and our inability to bear down and get things done is affecting issues small and big, immediate and long-term. Its setting back the future of global trade, undercutting our ability to quarantine dangerous weapons and rogue nations, and further narrowing our our options in Iraq. What began as ham-handedness on the part of the Bush Administration has morphed into a kind of poisonous touch, where everything they finger seems to leave others recoiling.
The latest evidence is hard to ignore since - in each case - the Bush Administration likely did all it possibly could to pull off a success which might divert attention from Iraq or, at the very least, avert an outcome that the press and critics could call failure:
- This past week's Inter-American Summit in Argentina was rancorous and fruitless. Bush's efforts to advance an Americas free trade zone went nowhere and the Summit didn't even manage to produce a routine communique. Perhaps distressed by mass street protests, Bush left early.
- Also this week, a US-led Summit on Mideast democracy and development essentially fell apart. While two pre-arranged funding initiatives were announced, efforts to achieve a joint statement failed, and Egypt walked out over an impasse concerning the role of NGOs.
- The Doha world trade round, launched in 2001 to dismantle trade barriers globally, is precariously close to collapse.
- A much heralded breakthrough on North Korea now looks just as iffy as it did weeks ago when cracks in the seams emerged just as soon as the deal was announced.
- An October trip by Rice to Moscow failed to dent Russian opposition to referring Iran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council.
- The Israel-Palestinian peace process has stalled, the window created by Israel's withdrawal from Gaza closing without any major US diplomatic push to implement the road map (maybe this is about to change, which would be great, but I doubt it).
(one recent exception I've acknowledged is US diplomacy at the UN on Hariri).
Now the Bush Administration is not to blame for all these outcomes. These are tough issues involving stubborn interlocutors. But when Rice spoke of the importance of diplomacy, this is what she set out to tackle, and her efforts just don't seem to be working.
The major culprit behind this unfortunate track record is not the Administration's arrogance, nor its disdain of traditional diplomatic tools like treaties and the UN. With limited exceptions like Chavez’ role at the Inter-American Summit, anti-Americanism isn’t the problem either. The real issue is Iraq. The disastrous Iraq mission is making it impossible for Rice and others to rehabilitate US diplomacy, and the crisis is unlikely to be resolved before the war is. How does Iraq undercut US diplomacy?
- Others are rightly convinced that the US is so preoccupied with Iraq that we can't or won't exert heavy leverage on other issues – this dynamic is at work when the Russians resist us on Iraq, when the Egyptians resist the US's push on democratization, and when the EU judges that push won’t come to shove on Doha;
- On the flip side, given its difficulties in Iraq, the Bush Administration is now perceived as more ready to compromise in other areas. Examples include Iran's nuclear program, the shaky bargain on N. Korea, and even the deferral of possible Syrian sanctions over Hariri. Some name this Bush's "half a loaf" diplomacy.
- Our single-minded focus on Iraq and the war on terror has meant perceived inattention to the priorities of others. Our Latin American neighbors gave up long ago on hopes that Bush would address concerns on trade and migration. His neglect during the first term ceded ground to Chavez, who has built stronger relationships with allies that we have alienated.
The disturbing thing is, its hard to see how we regain our diplomatic leverage and efficacy as long as the war goes on. Leaving Iraq may not help much either. It will signal the demise of the Bush Administration’s foreign policy aspirations, and his successor will face the challenge of trying to restore trust and credibility the world over.
Why does this matter? For one thing, it’s a tangible, hefty and remarkably far-reaching cost of the Iraq war effort, one that ought to be taken into account as the public evaluates where the President has led us. The Iraq fiasco is systematically undercutting most other aspects of US foreign policy.
Second, while people like John Edwards, Mort and others are right to continue calling for the internationalization of Iraq, the chances of that happening are at this point nil. I don’t think anyone in the Administration has the foggiest notion of how to even ask for help at this stage. They wouldn’t know how to bring up the topic, much less close the deal.
Third is that the damage will be hard to undo. These missed opportunities and failed Summits do not happen in a vacuum. They both mark and precipitate shifting alignments, new initiatives, and changed priorities all of which are moving in the direction of less US influence and control globally. It will take years to reverse the damage and, even once we do, the world we confront will be far different than the one that rallied around us right after September 11.