State of the Union Live Blogging Posted by Suzanne Nossel

Gracious opening recognizing Coretta Scott King.

Speaking in past tense about his time in office - sounds almost valedictory out of the box.  Addressing the divisions head-on, which is good.

"Tonight the state of the union is strong, and together we will make it stronger" seems to evince some awareness of what we're up against.

Early mention of economic leadership and trade openness is positive.   He says "US of A will continue to lead."  Does he realize fewer and fewer are following?

"We seek the end of tyranny in our world . . . the future security of America depends on it."  But have we learned anything over the last 5 years about tactics that alleviate rather than exacerbate our threats. 

References need to continue to spread democracy, promote freedom.  Says "we'll act boldly in freedom's cause."  For g-d's sake let's act wisely for a change. 

References wide spread of democracy worldwide.  But when will he wake up to how this impacts the manner in which a superpower should exert its power:  not through fiat, but in a way that's respectful of other countries that are legitimately governed and that deserve and demand a say?  Read my piece in Dissent on Democracy Confronts the Superpower for more.

Early reference to OBL.  Contrary to what many predicted, he is spending considerable time on foreign policy, at least early on.

Pre-blog Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Well, if there can be a pre-buttal, pre-speeches and pre-analysis, there can be a pre-blog.  If the excerpts just posted capture the tone throughout, this is heavy-duty.

"Abroad, our nation is committed to an historic, long-term goal:  we seek the end of tyranny in our world."

That's a considerably expanded course for "stay the course."   

I think -- not tonight, maybe not even when the post-SOTU polls are done, but soon enough -- this sort of thing will trigger a backlash.  Americans are already telling pollsters that they are suspicious of democracy promotion, skeptical of its progress in Iraq and dubious that we can even do anything to improve our own image abroad.  To my mind, this kind of rhetorical overreach unmatched by results will drive people further away from engagement -- and NOT into the arms of progressives.

But we'll see.  As usual, let's hope I'm wrong.

Your State of the Union Checklist Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Anyone else feel like this State of the Union (SOTU) is a little overhyped?

The Wall Street Journal pointed out last week that Bush’s ratings had gone down after at least two of his previous SOTUs, a fact that had escaped me.  The Washington Post says the State of the Union is passe and should be abandoned.  The media has been covering State of the Union previews for two weeks.  Enough, already.

Anyway, if you want a State of the Union parody, click here.  If you want a State of the Union drinking game, click here.  If you want Suzanne's thoughtful list of things Bush should say, click here.

But if you want my top five things to watch for, scroll on:

Democracy Promotion:  It’ll be fascinating to see how this gets finessed in the wake of the Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections.  The disappointing showing of moderate and secular Iraqi parties, though equally problematic, is easier to finesse.  Egyptian opposition leaders criticizing us from prison?  No problem.  I’m glad I’m not drafting this section.

Immigration:  For several months now, progressive pollsters have been warning Democratic party leadership that, while policy wonks don’t see immigration as a national security issue, regular Americans do.  The Administration recognizes this dynamic – indeed its pro-business leadership fears getting impaled on it – and will have thought long and hard over its approach.  Progressive response?

Iraq numbers game: My bet is that the President will not brag that troop numbers are down, leaving it to others to do that while he trumpets “staying the course.”  But I could very well be wrong. Iran: can he keep the rhetoric at a low enough simmer to keep talks going and allies on board, or is it impossible to resist playing to the critics on both sides of his Administration?

Overarching Frame:  we’ve had “humble nation,” we’ve had terrorism, we’ve had WMD, we’ve had democracy promotion as foreign policy frames.  That’s four in five years.  I’ll be very curious whether the clever folks in the framing rhetoric workshop trot out another one for us.  My bets are on “stay the course.”  Rove’s comments about the ’06 elections would seem to suggest a return engagement for straight-up terrorism.  But this is the beginning of legacy time, after all, -- and John Ikenberry argues that Bush and Rice are becoming liberal internationalists before our eyes -- so I wouldn’t even be surprised at a new, squishy-sounding paradigm emerging.

I’m on the road this week – Louisville and Des Moines – so will post again after the speech.  Just watch yourselves with those drinking games, huh?

Corruption from Ramallah to Ottawa Posted by Suzanne Nossel

Just a day after I touched on the role that Fatah's reputation for corruption and ethical violations in possibly tipping the scales toward Hamas tomorrow when Palestinians head to the polls, Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin gets whacked at ballot box defeat by conservative Stephen Harper, largely as a result of his party's reputation for fraud and skimming.  In Bolivia, newly elected leftist President Evo Morales won on a platform of eradicating corruption.  All this comes just as Jack Abramoff's plea agreement riles Washington.

It may seem obvious, but corruption plays a huge role in politics the world over.   Harper's election may strengthen Canadian ties with the US but in general corruption serves to to set back socio-economic development, to cloud the legitimacy of democratic leaders, to cramp economic growth, and to promote instability and lack of confidence in public institutions.   The World Bank has identified corruption as the number one obstacle to economic and social development. 

The Administration deserves some credit for making anti-corruption a centerpiece of its Millennium Challenge Corporation, but so far only 7 countries have struck deals with that program (partly due to lack of sufficient funding).  Finding practical ways to assist countries to crack down on corruption needs to be elevated to a centerpiece of US foreign policy and aid.  Doing that credibly will, of course, require keeping our own house in order.

Tough and Tender Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Quick, what do the following countries have in common?  Ukraine, Sao Tome and Principe, Germany, Liberia and Chile. 

All have chosen women as their heads of state or government in the last 12 months, continuing a stealth trend in world affairs.  In the last ten years, something like 27 women have become heads of state or government around the world – as many as in the 30 years from 1960-1990, and more than the years 1900-1989.

But why should I care?  asks the "overwhelmingly male" blogosphere?

Here's why:  (and no, this isn't an item about US domestic politics)

Looking at how women's political empowerment took off globally and took root (or didn't) in individual societies just might tell us something important about how democracy promotion and civic empowerment do (or don't) work more broadly.  I would propose, in increasing order of importance:

--specific efforts to promote women in politics

--a global movement and globalized support for women in politics, flowing through the 1995 Beijing Conference, and

--a post-1989 global movement toward greater personal and societal freedom, and a desire for the real or perceived casting off of old rulers and elites.

Replace the phrase "women in politics" with another phrase -- oh, say, "democracy in Islam" or "petro-democracy" or "self-sustaining democracy" or "democracy among the poorest" and you might see how the broader democracy movement could learn from the "women thing."

Islamic World Top 10 Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Alt.muslim puts the fun back in foreign affairs:  A top ten list we couldn't have written ourselves at democracyarsenal but that is worth some study:  alt.muslim's "Top Ten Good News Stories of 2005."  Do yourself a favor and check it out.

I guarantee that you will not have heard about all ten of the developments.  You read about the Aceh peace agreements here; if you are a human rights type you know about Rebiya Kadeer;  it's good to be reminded that Bangladesh sent us charity after Hurricane Katrina; but check out Kenya's camel libraries and the Muslim admiral who discovered America.

If you ever have occasion to write, give interviews or lecture (even to friends and family) about international affairs and "clash of civilizations" type issues, you will enjoy having some of these good news tidbits tucked away in the back of your brain.

And wrapping your brain around someone else's perspective on the year past is good mental gymnastics, whether you agree with it or not -- we used to think understanding other perspectives was essential to success in foreign policy, but that just sounds so 1990s, doesn't it?

Gazprom, Meet Globalization Posted by Heather Hurlburt

For those of us on the older side of young, Russia's abortive attempt to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine brings back memories of the 1980s -- when Germany and others first began pipeline discussions with the Soviet Union, triggering rows within NATO about whether it was wise or totally unacceptable for Europe to make itself dependent on  Moscow in this way.  Of course, at that time no one ever imagined Ukraine, Poland or Hungary getting in the way.

This is a very particular European moment, one that people have been talking about for decades -- when Moscow finally did get angry enough to use an economic weapon against countries to the west.  Right now it looks like a failure -- but it's an interesting one.

First, the EU will now get involved in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, one way or another -- and that will likely result in Russia getting some more money from somewhere.

Second, it may not look so bad inside Russia that Gazprom "stood up" and the Europeans (and US) intervened on Ukraine's behlaf.  If nothing else, it does reinforce certain stereotypes about Russia's being surrounded by hostile tools of the West -- perceptions which come in handy politically.  (I apologize for not having checked Russian press on this... if anyone else has, please comment on it.)

Third, this becomes yet another football in German politics, where it gets laid at departed Chancellor Schroeder's door -- as he had initiated negotiations for yet another gas pipeline to Germany from Russia.

Fourth, it's a reminder of how globalization does work -- and how it doesn't.  Yes, Tom Friedman, the earth is flat where gas pipeline flows are concerned.  But has Russia also made a point here?  Can Ukraine continue on as if Russia didn't exist, as if national boundaries didn't matter a whit?  No.  Half a milennium of history buts up against 21st-century economics, and I'd call the result a draw -- so far.

Russia Turning Off the Gas Posted by Suzanne Nossel

  Many thanks to those who kept up the stream of commentary as some of us regulars took a holiday break.   For readers who had a respite Spencer and Mort's posts on the unauthorized White House eavesdropping are must-reads.  Mort speaks from personal experience about having his phone tapped by the President.  He provides a watertight legal argument that Bush's actions are illegal, offering citations and history that will prove useful references as the investigations unfold.   It's long, but well worth a look.

A brewing controversy boiled over today when a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over Russia's decision to end deep subsidies of Ukrainian natural gas prompted accusations that Ukraine was unlawfully siphoning gas supplies from a pipeline that serves most of Europe. 

Several European countries including Serbia, Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia experienced dramatic drops in gas supplies, while France and other Western European nations faced smaller shortfalls.  Facing heavy pressure from European Union officials terrified by the prospect of inadequate heating supply in mid-Winter, Russia has said that its state-controlled gas monopoly, Gazprom, will restore a full flow to Europe, though the fight over rates with Ukraine is unresolved.  (Here's a good explanation of what natural gas is, for anyone who cares.  Here's a a helpful CSM piece on the standoff).

Here's what a spokesman from a state-funded Russian think tank had to say about Russia's heavy-handed hydrocarbon diplomacy:  "We have vast resources and they give us political influence . . .If we give a lower price to somebody, we have the right to demand political concessions . . . This may not be a great geopolitical policy, but it's better than nothing."

What's notable here:

- First, is its a powerful illustration of enduring Russian leverage over Ukraine, despite the Orange Revolution.   Russia's move appears timed to influence the March Ukrainian elections, in which Yuschenko - facing challenges from the indomitable, meticulously braided Yulia Tymoshenko and his erstwhile pro-Moscow opponent, Viktor Yanukovych - has been running on a policy of standing up to the Kremlin.    The fracas is expected to deepen polarization between the more nationalistic Western Ukraine and its more Moscow-oriented east. 

- Second, its a sobering reminder of Europe's dependency on Russia.   Europe gets 80% of its gas supplies via the Ukrainian pipeline, and 25% from Russia itself.  German and US officials have raised concerns about Russia's "credibility" as a supplier in light of the dip, but that ignores the absence of alternatives to supply Europe's needs.    Germany is on to this and is working on a massive pipeline project with the Russians.

- Third, its evidence of the rise of resource-driven international diplomacy spreading beyond the Middle East, where its held sway for decades.  China's foreign policy is increasingly guided by its demand for fuel.   Given our own feckless consumption habits, the same will be true for Washington.  Over time, this has the potential to effect pretty seismic shifts in the global balance of power, shifts that are unlikely to favor the US.

- Fourth, coinciding with Russia's assumption of the G8 Presidency, this incident could mark the beginning of Russia's reemergence as a larger independent force in international relations, building on its control over energy to resist outside pressure for reforms, and to throw its weight around on other foreign policy matters (terrorism, the former Soviet Republics and Iran come to mind).

Lots to watch.

Odd Man Out in Asia Posted by Suzanne Nossel

This is an interesting but disturbing piece about the consolidation and integration underway in Asia which, for the first time since WWII is creating an alliance that expressly excludes the US.

The first-ever East Asia Summit convenes Wednesday and will involve 16 nations including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Idonesia, Australia and New Zealand.  This is the first regional grouping to include both China and India, who have opted to deliberately leave us out.

Those who have had the mindshare for anything apart from the fight against terror and WMD have been talking about the pressing need for the US to deepen its alliances with India and others in order to secure our foothold in a rapidly changing Asia, and create forums for joint action with those that share our cautiousness about China's rapid rise.  But Bush's most recent visit to the region was a breather from the relentless pressures in Iraq more than anything else.

The perception among some commentators in the region is that the Administration's single-minded focus on terrorism has come at the expense of Asian priorities, leaving a power vaccuum that China has filled.   This seems right to me.   We may look back on the last 5 years as a period in which we dropped the ball, overlooking critical realignments that may leave American power fundamentally weaker for reasons having little to do with terrorism and WMD.   

Chinese military and economic power and its appetite for resouces are growing exponentially.   Our values, our culture, and our political system are potentially formidable factors that should shore up America's global influence.   But the persuasive power of our values, culture, etc. have been fundamentally eroded over the last 5 years, and China has taken advantage of the gap we've left.   If we're not careful, we may look back on the convening of the East Asian Summit as a milestone along the road to diminished US influence in Asia and around the globe.

Global Good News Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Five beacons of hope from around the world, to put you in a holiday mood:

Democracy is on the march at ASEAN.  Famously non-interventionist East Asian leaders have had it with the Burmese junta, and are telling them so.

Peace Process in Aceh, Indonesia on track.  So says the International Crisis Group:

The Aceh peace process is working beyond all expectations. Guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) have turned in the required number of weapons. The Indonesian military (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, TNI) has withdrawn troops on schedule. The threat of militia violence has not materialised. Amnestied prisoners have returned home without incident. The international Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM), led by the European Union's Peter Feith, has quickly and professionally resolved the few violent incidents between GAM and the TNI.

Wheels of Justice, vol. 1:  Balkan war crime progress on multiple fronts.  Not only was number three most-wanted suspect (and Croatian general) Ante Gotovina caught last week and put on trial in the Hague this week (for atrocities committed against Croatia's Serb minority during the Balkans wars, but a court in Serbia convicted 14 former militiamen for their part in the infamous massacre of Croatian prisoners at Vukovar during that same conflict.  Seeing national trials produce conviction is key, many have argued, to national and regional coming-to-terms with what happened -- as much so, perhaps, as Hague trials of big shots like Gotovina.

South America's Switzerland.  Not much good news out of Latin America these days -- but check out Chile's presidential election, to be followed by a run-off between a woman ex-defense minister and Pinochet era torture victim, Michele Bachelet, and rightist millionaire businessman  Sebastian Pinera.  So routine it's gotten hardly any media coverage here -- as good as could have been hoped when Pinochet stepped down in 1990. 

Wheels of Justice, vol. 2:  Pinochet himself is facing new attempts to bring him to court, this time for tax evasion.)

Feel better now?