Leon Panetta's Follow Friday: @Iran, @Israel, @Tough Love

December 02, 2011

Leon Panetta's Follow Friday: @Iran, @Israel, @Tough Love
Posted by Heather Hurlburt

The Obama national security team is notorious for its habit of dropping national security news at moments that are unconducive to the news cycle, so Leon Panetta’s 6pm Friday speaking engagement at Brookings’ Saban Forum was tipped to be worth checking out. And the SecDef did not disappoint, coming loaded for multiple bear: first, to announce a new, largest-ever joint US-Israeli military exercise next year (superseding 2009’s largest-ever US-Israel exercise), at which new ballistic missile defenses will be tested. Second, to convey firmly to Iran (the intended audience of the aforementioned missile defense test), but also to Israel, that in the effort to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, “it is my department’s responsibility to provide the President with a range of military options” and “no option has been taken off the table.”

With that throat-clearing out of the way, Panetta launched into a to-do list for Israel that was impressive in its scope and firmness. Israel should mend fences with Turkey and Jordan. Israel should lean into cooperation with Egypt along its border more, rather than pulling away. Israel should find ways to do more security cooperation with the US-trained Palestinian Authority forces (and Abbas should make that possible). Israel should see the changes of the last year as an opportunity and work to secure peace for the long term. Israel “has a responsibility to work toward our common goals” and “build regional support for our shared objectives.”

While we wait for the wailing about the Israeli relationship to start, a few public opinion figures you might've missed in the last week:

% of Americans who believe Iran can be contained by diplomacy: 55.

% of Israelis who support an Israeli strike on Iran: 43.

% of Israeli Jews who have a favorable view of Obama, and of the US: 54 and 80.

In the Q and A, Panetta soberly laid out the problems with the “military option for Iran” he said, it will only delay, not stop, Iran’s program; it will reverse Iran’s regional isolation; it could spark retaliation against US forces; it would have economic implications; and it could throw the entire region into conflict.

So given all those factors, with which many nonpartisan and military analysts agree, as well as concerns about an unintended slide from heated rhetoric to confrontation and war, why would a sober, thoughtful defense secretary go so far out of the way to insist that force is not ruled out? Panetta said that the Administration’s goal is to force Iran to choose between a nuclear weapon and re-integration in the region and the world. He knows that diplomacy and economics are the way to achieve that goal -- and said so. The Secretary also knows that what he called Israel's increasing isolation makes things easier for Iran. Hence the invitation to Israel to reach out in its region and alter the dynamic. Panetta, who has developed since arriving at the Pentagon a reputation for speaking off the cuff from time to time, seemed highly calibrated throughout, which made the curtness of his last response, to the question of what Israel should do now, all the more striking: “just get to the damn table.”

http://www.brookings.edu/events/2011/1202_saban_forum.aspx

December 02, 2011 at 07:51 PM | Permalink

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December 02, 2011