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October 10, 2011

All Children Above Average, National Security Edition
Posted by Heather Hurlburt

From what I've seen of the speech Jon Huntsman is about to give, I expect attention to focus on his call for a faster pullout from Afghanistan than Obama's timetable, or Romney's, or the Senate neocons' (never), and maybe on the general awkwardness of someone who served in the Obama Administration overseas saying its policies have "weakened America."

But -- in a speech that overall represents what used to be the sensible center of Republican politics -- the sentences that ought to get the most attention are a call for military attacks on Iran if it gets nuclear weapons, and a call for US foreign policy to be "much more" focused on counter-terrorism.  Oh, and the idea that we should focus trade initiative on nations that share our values, which is a rather non-realist idea that I'll let my trade policy friends have a field day with.

The Iran attack call is interesting because, contrary to what you might think, the U.S. military and many nonpartisan and bipartisan national security figures think such an attack would be a disaster for our security, for our economy and for our ally Israel. A Stimson Center-USIP report found that an attack: 

would cement Iran's determination to acquire nuclear weapons, likely end the prospects for a democratic revival in Iran indefinitely, and result in significant military, political, and economic harm to the US and its allies.

Meanwhile, Huntsman says that we need to pay "much more" attention to counter-terrorism in our foreign policy.  I wonder what he means by this.  The 9/11 Commission and a number of CT scholars have written in recent months that the threat we face from terrorism remains substantial but not catastrophic.  Defense Secretary Panetta and others have said that Al Qaeda is under great stress.  And in fact, the UN just rolled out a new forum for counter-terrorism cooperation.  All this would seem to suggest more that we can right-size our focus on terrorism.  In my experience, whether you are a diplomat at the UN, in an Asian financial institution or a Latin American embassy, terrorism is in the top three items on your portfolio.  At a moment where we face such intense economic and institutional challenges around the world, I have literally never seen in the writings of any expert of any political stripe the idea that our diplomats need to do more CT work.

 

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Meanwhile, Huntsman says that we need to pay "much more" attention to counter-terrorism in our foreign policy. I wonder what he means by this. The 9/11 Commission and a number of CT scholars have written in recent months that the threat we face from terrorism remains substantial but not catastrophic. Defense Secretary Panetta and others have said that Al Qaeda is under great stress. And in fact, the UN just rolled out a new forum for counter-terrorism cooperation. All this would seem to suggest more that we can right-size our focus on terrorism. In my experience, whether you are a diplomat at the UN, in an Asian financial institution or a Latin American embassy, terrorism is in the top three items on your portfolio. At a moment where we face such intense economic and institutional challenges around the world, I have literally never seen in the writings of any expert of any political stripe the idea that our diplomats need to do more CT work.

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