Whistling Past the Graveyard Posted by Michael Cohen

Fernando Lujan has an op-ed in the New York Times today that is the sort of thing written about the war in Afghanistan that makes me want to repeatedly bang my head against a wall. Based on his experience on the ground in Afghanistan, Lujan is convinced that we can win in Afghanistan. How you ask? By being smarter!

“Winning” is a meaningless word in this type of war, but something is happening in the Afghan south that gives me hope. Rather than resignation, America should show resolve — not to maintain a large troop presence or extend timelines, but to be smarter about the way we use our tapering resources to empower those Afghans willing to lead and serve.

Why after ten years of fighting; why at a time when the President has made quite clear that US involvement in Afghanistan needs to begin winding down; why when the Afghan government and its security services have shown precious little inclination to "lead and serve" do we think that suddenly we're going to get Afghanistan right or that we're going to start acting smarter in how we use our resources? 

Reading Lujan's hopeful words about Afghanistan and the "stirring" that he claims to see among the populace one might think that things are improving in Afghanistan and that security is getting better. However, since Lujan proudly eschews the use of metrics in his article readers of the New York Times might not know that the exact opposite is happening. According to the latest quarterly report from the United Nations things are actually getting worse in Afghanistan . . . again:

The U.N. says the average monthly tally of armed clashes, roadside bombings and other violence has increased sharply this year in Afghanistan.

In its quarterly report on Afghanistan released Wednesday, the U.N. says that as of the end of August, the average monthly number of incidents was 2,108. That's up 39 percent compared with the same period last year.

The U.N. report also says that while the number of suicide attacks remained steady, insurgents are conducting more complex suicide operations, involving multiple bombers and gunmen.

It says that on average, three complex attacks have been carried out each month this year — a 50 percent increase compared with the same period last year.

Of course, as we are now regularly told by the Pentagon and its enablers in the policy community these attacks are not indicative of Taliban resilience - but rather desperation. How does Lujan know this: "a tough Pashtun named Mahmoud" told him so. As for the committed Afghan soldiers who Lujan is in contact with on a regular basis - they appear to be the exception not the rule. Rather, as Danger Room reported earlier this week not a single Afghan battalion is able to fight on its own. Not one. This "success" comes at a price tag of $6 billion per year in US taxpayer largesse.

But look none of this should be a surprise: the military has been dispensing this sort of anecdotal "good news" for years now in the hopes that it would convince Americans and policymakers that we are just around the corner from turning the corner in Afghanistan. It's yet one more example of the military interpreting short-term tactical gains as a sign of strategic progress. It's barely the former and not at all the latter.

The problem, which Lujan's op-ed typifies, is that we've never been realistic about what we can achieve in Afghanistan or what we can rely upon the Afghan government to do.  We haven't for one moment in the last ten years been smart about Afghanistan - that isn't going to change now as the US mission there begins to wind down. Quite simply, we've lost the war in Afghanistan. Winning is no longer in the cards (indeed it was never really an option). The question now is how to we get out in such a way that
protects our interests with the limited resources, capabilities and political will at our disposal.  Fetishizing the Afghan security services or our own abilities to do the "smart" thing in Afghanistan isn't going to help us answer those questions. 

Rather it's just another example of whistling past the graveyard.

Comments

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Is this the same story you wrote about Iraq in 2006? Good call on that one.

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Very interesting post! Thanks for it.

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I don't anyone would admit that the US was defeated in Afghanistan. Pakistan still is relevant and that still involves Afghanistan so though there will be a withdrawal of troops, it isn't over.

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When the case of Afghanistan is getting worse, it's time to leave?

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