Why Obama Should Not Necessarily Be Listening to Gates on Afghanistan Posted by Michael Cohen

 
David Rothkopf has a provocative piece in Foreign Policy that argues the US should get out of Afghanistan - and get out now. While I'm sympathetic with the general argument I think David gets the specifics wrong - a precipitous withdrawal is not the best play right now either for the US or for Afghanistan. There are more effective ways to safeguard US interests, drawdown the US presence and potentially leave Afghanistan in reasonably stable condition.

But actually I have a quibble with another of his statements; and it has to do with my new best friend Bob Gates and his views on Afghanistan. Here's what Rothkopf says:

It is important to very carefully weigh his statement on Monday that in Afghanistan "we've still got a ways to go and I think we shouldn't let up on the gas too much, at least for the next few months." Clearly, it reflects a belief on his part -- days before his departure from office -- that continued application of U.S. military force at present levels of intensity could speed the movement of the Taliban to the negotiating table and thus make reconciliation talks and potential stability in that country more feasible sooner.

He is in a better position than almost anyone to make that judgment given the constant stream of intelligence and feedback he gets from his generals on the ground. That his view is apparently shared by General David Petraeus, America's top commander there, adds credence to it.

I'm sure I'll get in trouble for saying this, but I actually would argue that Bob Gates, a month before his departure from government, is not the best person to make this judgment . . . but one of the worst.

Let's start with the fact that Gates was one of the biggest civilian proponents of the current mission back in the Fall of 2009. We can now say, in retrospect, that his support for the surge was misguided, because for a variety of reasons that original approach which focused on winning Afghan hearts and minds has not worked and has largely been scrapped in favor of an enemy-centric approach that is offering temporary and unsustainable military gains. Moreover, the strategic inputs that were part of the 2009 escalation - Pakistan cooperation on dismantling Afghan safe havens, a civilian surge, Afghan governance reform, security sector improvement etc - simply haven't materialized in the manner that surge proponents predicted. Of course, that this strategy likely wouldn't work should have been obvious then; and it's fair to judge Gates on his over optimistic view of the efficacy of US military power at the time and question whether his judgment should be fully trusted today.

Beyond the issue of Gates' track record, there is another problem: by this point Gates has something of a personal interest in seeing the current US military mission in Afghanistan succeed. He's no longer an impartial observer to the debate; he's one who, at least theoretically, wants to see his judgment in Afghanistan and his support for escalation to be vindicated. This isn't meant as an attack on Gates; but it hardly seems uncontroversial to note that he is likely predisposed to want to see the current mission play out rather than admit "defeat" and begin bringing troops home. 

As for the notion that Gates' view is supported by General Petraeus and thus it has greater credence, this is even more dubious. Who, beyond Gates, has even more desire to see his strategic views on counter-insurgency be vindicated than David Petraeus?  If anyone in the Administration is going to be putting their thumb on the scale and offering a more rosy view of what's happening on the ground it would be him. Of course, we know that Petraeus has offered nothing but optimistic views about the US mission in Afghanistan; views contradicted by non-military observers of the conflict. And these views, of course, which trickle down the chain of command in a deeply hierarchical institution like the US military have practically become cant. Moreover, military views on the success of current operations may actually tell us very little about the larger strategic success, or lack thereof, of the mission.

So if Gates is relying on the judgment of Petraeus and his generals, as Rothkopf suggests, he's likely getting a one-sided view of the conflict. 

This is all part and parcel of a mindset that "failure is not an option" in Afghanistan and that we must continue a military mission until it achieves victory (whatever that overused word actually means). It's what I call "military can do-ism run horribly amok" This is in fact why you have civilian overseers of the military; to ensure that larger strategic and political considerations go into war-making decisions.

So in the end, it's not as if Obama shouldn't listen to Gates or Petraeus about what to do in Afghanistan - but he should take what they say with a big grain of salt and listen to those without a vested interest in the decision about what to do next.

Perhaps convening a 2011 version of the Wise Men would be a smart thing for Obama to consider (and yes, there are wise men about national security who don't live in Washington DC)

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Afghanistan and that we must continue a military mission until it achieves victory (whatever that overused word actually means). It's what I call "military can do-ism run horribly amok" This is in fact why you have civilian overseers of the military; to ensure that larger strategic and political considerations go into war-making decisions.

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"Robert Gates may well be the best secretary of defense the United States has ever produced"--No comment.

"....continued application of U.S. military force at present levels of intensity could speed the movement of the Taliban to the negotiating table and thus make reconciliation talks and potential stability in that country more feasible sooner"--Ten years is not soon enough?

"....what we've taken away from these guys over the last year to 18 months"--Taken away? See what Anna Badkhen has to lament about this.

"...mischievous Pakistani ISI officer with an agenda"--You have to throw this in, how else would you get paid?

"... for the United States, there is no long term in Afghanistan."--Ten years is not long enough?

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