A Light At the End of the Tunnel? Posted by Michael Cohen

So I have a piece up in the Atlantic today on Obama's speech and long-time DA readers will be surprised to find that I'm feeling pretty upbeat about it:

Reporter Bob Woodward's 2010 book-length account of the Obama administration's decision to escalate in Afghanistan shows Obama siding with Petraeus in 2009, but only ambivalently and conditionally, and in a way that suggested he was willing to give the counterinsurgency strategy a chance but was not convinced of its success. If there is one overriding takeaway from Obama's speech tonight, it is that the same President who 18 months ago was led by his generals into an escalation that he didn't appear to fully support has now taken back control of his policy in Afghanistan. Right now, that means leading U.S. strategy down the path of de-escalation. As Obama said, this not the end of the war in Afghanistan, but it's certainly the beginning of America's effort to "wind down the war." 

. . . Obama's decision to resolutely shift U.S. strategy is a critical recognition that the war in Afghanistan must begin to come to an end -- and offers a potential path for accomplishing that objective. While many will likely quibble over Obama's statement that the U.S. is "meeting our goals" in Afghanistan, perhaps a victory lap is the cover that the President feels he needs to begin the process of de-escalation. Tragically, U.S. soldiers, Afghan security forces, and Afghan civilians will continue to be maimed and to perish in Afghanistan. But, for the first time in ten years, the light at the end of the tunnel of the U.S. war there is suddenly visible.

Read the whole thing here; but I did want to touch on one point that I failed to explore in the Atlantic piece. For the past several months the US has been discussing a strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan that would maintain a long-term US military presence in the country well past 2014.

Spencer thinks the problem here is that, "the U.S. is simultaneously asking the Taliban to end its insurgency while asking Karzai to let it stay in perpetuity for a shadow war against the Taliban’s longtime allies." I think that's overstating the point. The US, by seeking to negotiate a long-term security partnership with the Karzai government, is a) hedging its bets in case political reconciliation goes nowhere b) providing themselves with a political negotiating chit in talks with the Taliban and c) furthering the US interest in maintaining US drone capabilities in the region, which is particularly important if a) happens. So in the end, I don't think the SPA is quite as significant a deal-breaker as Spencer does.

Actually the problem last night was that Obama didn't mention the SPA. It was a glaring and dangerous omission in his remarks.

The result, I fear, is that the Taliban may infer that the US commitment to Afghan security is fleeting and thus the Taliban can simply wait for the Americans to leave. While that perception is almost certainly wrong it may in the near term lead the Taliban to avoid political negotiations, further delaying the reconciliation process. It would be wise for the Administration to clarify this issue and restate its commitment to maintaining a long-term presence - even if they don't mean it, such a clarification would actually help not hinder the process of political reconciliation.

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I personally believe that the Pashtun dominated Taliban and the Pakistani ISI will continue to take advantage of the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan unless the United States streghthens ties with the Indians and the Iranians, who support the non-Pashtun ethnic groups in that country. Pakistan and the Taliban has benefitted greatly due to America's myopic obsession with Iran's nuclear program, because that has prevented the United States from siding with the only other Muslim country that is strong enough to counter Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. If the United States was to somehow reset relations with the Iranians that would then pressure the Pakistanis and the Taliban to agree to an agreement more favorable to the Americans on Afghanistan.

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