Peggy Noonan on the Virtue of Restraint Posted by David Shorr

In her Wall Street Journal column Friday, Peggy Noonan criticized the international intervention in Libya as an example of excessive activism. Pointing to Dwight Eisenhower and her own mentor Ronald Reagan as model presidents, Noonan dusts off the classic argument against action for action's sake -- 'don't just do something, sit there!' But as much as I admire Eisenhower's leadership and embrace prudence as a virtue, I find Noonan's case unpersuasive. Despite what she says, President Obama's Libya decision was more grand strategy than grand gesture.

The more I think about these issues, the heart of the debate seems to be between realism about outcomes versus realism about alternatives. Interventionists are charged with impulsivity and failing to think through the contingencies. But was the option of staying at arm's length truly more realistic?

One thing that Noonan notes is the pressure for action from the international media:

The administration no doubt feared grim pictures from Benghazi and the damage those pictures could do to the president's reputation and standing.

Just to point out the obvious, the damage would have been much more severe for the people of Benghazi; so it isn't just a matter of perceptions. That's not to say perceptions don't factor into it -- they cannot be dismissed, nor should they. Indeed it's a strange sight to watch a living legend political communicator be so dismissive about media perceptions.

Noonan is at least consistent in her argument, stressing the importance of being "steely-eyed" and "responsive to immediate and long-term strategic needs." But again, damning the Libya intervention as an emotional response is too facile a critique. It overlooks the strategic interest in a rules-based order, an international community in which some abuses of power and violations of humanitarian principles are considered beyond the pale.

Are critics of the intervention being realistic about the alternative of failing to intervene? They ask about the ambiguous outcome and lack of consistency in response to the different (or similar) situations in Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, or Sudan, for that matter. Here's my question: can someone explain why the United States should stay on the sidelines when an international consensus wants to forcibly resist a despot's brutal crackdown? Does that make strategic sense?

The ambiguous outcome -- and its twin, the ambiguous objective -- indeed pose a problem. By keeping the military commitment within constraints (rather than whatever-it-takes open-endedness), President Obama is playing a game of chance rather than certainty. The calculation is that the Qaddafi regime is weak enough to be ousted by the combination of Libyan rebels on the front lines, coalition forces over the horizon, and defections from Qaddafi's own forces.

Where Peggy Noonan sees an emotional impulse, I see underwriting a calculated risk. We just don't know if it will be enough to remove Qaddafi. Looking at it through the realism of alternatives, giving limited help for an uncertain outcome is still better than the certainty of abandoning Libyans rising up against Qaddafi to their fate. Remember the key facts. The opposition asked for the help and understood it would be limited. A surprising international consensus called for the intervention.

I think these ambiguities are characteristic of the world in which we live. They make for difficult dilemmas and uncomfortable choices. With all due respect to former Secretaries of State James Baker and Henry Kissinger, the criteria for intervention they lay out in Friday's WaPo seem sensible on their face, but require a degree of clarity and certainty that will be very hard to find.

If you're looking for an example lofty rhetoric not backed up by forceful action, look at US actions right after the first Iraq War in 1991, probably the most under-discussed historical analogy of the current debate. Many will recall President George H.W. Bush's prudent (and wise) decision not to press on to Baghdad and remove Saddam from power. What's less remembered are the signals from Washington encouraging Saddam's foes to rise up against him -- as Barry Lando, the episode's leading expert, reminds us. An Iraqi insurrection indeed sprouted, with the expectation of American support. None came, and they were slaughtered by Saddam. The situation in Libya is the reverse; the rebellion was initiated internally, and the US and others stepped up with material backing. As I say, a response that was better than the alternatives.

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The intervention it has produced is carefully calibrated to avoid steps that might divert us from the path that leads to popularity on the Arab street. That evidently includes killing Qadhafi, which might have been done easily a couple of weeks ago when he was still making televised public appearances. The carefully calibrated intervention President Obama has chosen instead will kill a great many more Libyans, but that's OK. We do not know how its careful calibrations will keep the war from extending its life for weeks, months or even longer. That is also OK. The important thing is what the Arabs want us to do now. They say, we do. That's what is called clarity in the conduct of American foreign relations.
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