Stumbling Into War Posted by Michael Cohen

I've been trying very hard to find reasons to be supportive of the current US/UN war in Libya - but it's getting increasingly difficult. And the main reason is that it looks a lot like amateur hour at the White House right now.

First of all, from everything that is being reported (and Josh Rogin as usual is doing yeoman's work on this front) it appears that the White House only made the decision to go to war in the last several days. Consider that for a second; for weeks the US was resisting the use of force in Libya - and then within what appears to be a 96-hour period we went from opposition to intervention to supportive of intervention to escalation far beyond a no-fly zone to actually going to war. And all of this happened without any national debate, any serious consultation with Congress and any strong statement of objectives and purpose by President Obama. 

As Fallows points out in a whipsmart post, the only debate that seemed to happen was the one in the Oval Office . . . to change the President's mind about the use of force. And it should be noted that the person who seemed to have the most impact on shifting the President's view was the woman he beat in the 2008 Democratic primary, in large measure, because of her misguided support for another military intervention that wasn't properly throught thru. 

But the even larger problem is that no one in the White House seems to have any idea what they are ultimately trying to achieve. Here is Hillary Clinton last week, “If you don’t get him out and if you don’t support the opposition and he stays in power, there’s no telling what he will do.”  Apparently, in this Administration Hillary is playing the role of Madeleine Albright - a woman who never saw a war she couldn't moralize about.

But according to Adm. Mike Mullen, "The goals are limited. It's not about seeing him go. It's about supporting the United Nations resolution which talked about eliminating his ability to kill his own people." In fact, Mullen actually suggested that Gaddafi might stay in power despite the assault. 

The obvious problem here is that our current military strategy will not eliminate Gaddafi's ability to kill his own people - it will just make it more difficult for him to kill them via airpower. And, in what is a very positive note, it appears that the coalition effort may have in the near-term stopped a potential massace in Benghazi. But if we are serious about impeding Gaddafi's ability to harm civilians there is far more that needs to be done - and it seems fairly obvious that the United States isn't prepared to do it.

But all this begs the question: what is the end game here? Are we really willing to accept Gaddafi staying in power? Or are we executing the Hillary strategy?

Are we and our UN allies prepared to patrol a no-fly zone ad infinitum if Libya is basically partitioned, de facto, into two states? And what if our are already weakly-held together coalition abandons the job - something that already seems to be happening with the Arab League?

None of these questions have been answered. Indeed I'm not even sure they have been asked. Instead it seems like an impulsive President decided, without a great deal of consulation of even consideration, to launch a miliary strike on Libya to prevent a civilian massacre - and gave scant thought to what comes next. In other words it appears that he decided to shoot first and ask tough questions later.

I hate to say this, but I thought that was the profile of the guy Obama beat in 2008.

Comments

[tequila]

Right, so do you think Obama and pretty much every Western country, including former Gaddafi best bud Silvio Berlusconi, all decided to shoot first and ask questions later?

Do you think China and Russia let this very expansive UNSCR pass ... just cause?

Is the Arab League shooting first and asking questions later?

I don't know why you think the kind of diplomatic legwork that went into the UNSCR and the rapid building of an Arab/European/American coalition just happened in a week or so.

Also, I have a hard time seeing why you believe that Gaddafi's forces will be able to hold out for the long term. The rebels at this point will only be getting stronger, now that they have a curtain of allied airpower behind which to consolidate. They will be able to arm up and fund their forces with seized Gaddafi assets. Gaddafi's forces, OTOH, can no longer resupply via sea or air, and are cut off from funding and any kind of support whatsoever. They can no longer mass armor or artillery to launch any kind of offensive, while the rebels are free to do exactly that.

[Merchant Cash Advance]

Do we next target Bahrain? Yemen? If we are going to protect Libyan civilians why not civilians in other African and Middle Eastern States?

This will be a failure on two fronts if: 1. Qadaffi eventually wins anyway 2. Bahrain and Yemen continue to kill their own people who protest and the US does nothing about it. Any credibility gained by helping the Libyan people will be instantly lost if we don't apply the same standards to other nations.

[Atlanta Roofing]

Gaddafi has a lot to thank President Obama for. Obama has promised no boots on the ground. All Obama signed on for is the no-fly zone. Well, the one in Iraq lasted 12 years and led to the enrichment of many UN officials through the oil for food program. Plus the no-fly zone was the main leftist talking point of anti-Americanism before Gitmo. So Gaddafi can murder his opposition under the cover of the no-fly zone and blame America for all the deaths.

[john]

Well i beleive its a matter of starting with the one who has stayed in power most. Diverting from your views, The civilian population needed a shield.... not after telling them that they were coackroaches that needed stamping to death. "u dont talk while eating" so goes the saying, where you are not eating from,... u can speak... with guns and artillary.

[christian louboutin designer]

They are interested in the post.

[冷夜]

ue shooting first and asking questions later?

I don't know why you think the kind of diplomatic legwork that went into the UNSCR and the rapid building of an Arab/European/American coalition just happened in a week or so.

Also, I have a hard time seeing why you believe

[ミュウミュウ バッグ]

This will be a failure on two fronts if: 1. Qadaffi eventually wins anyway 2. Bahrain and Yemen continue to kill their own people who protest and the US does nothing about it. Any credibility gained by helping the Libyan people will be instantly lost if we don't apply the same standards to other nations.

[nettekeyif]

Hi admin very nice and very successful In Turkey there is a portal site as a brother I would thank you too watch with admiration

[Concord Swiss Replica Watches]

Thanks for blogging this, it was quite handy and showed me quite a bit

[cheap lace front wigs]

Thanks for your article.I have learned a lot form you.Thanks very much.