More Questions on Libya; And Even Fewer Answers Posted by Michael Cohen

This morning Heather and I did a bloggingheads on Libya, which hopefully will be up here soon. It's sort of interesting debate because I think both of us are struggling on what to think about this situation. I think both of us are torn by our desire to see the international community help the Libyan people and prevent a humanitarian crisis and our well-earned skepticism about the efficacy of utilizing military force in pursuit of somewhat murky and uncertain political goals.

But one area where we did find consensus is around the notion that the actions of the UN have the opportunity to create a whole new international norm around the concept of R2P or right to protect. Certainly it sends a message to regimes intent on causing harm to their own civilians (although it does seem that the folks in Yemen haven't yet received that message). As Heather points out, this moment has to be seen as a victory for the international system and the very notion of collective security. 

And to be very honest this is part of the reason this whole intervention puts a bit of a pit in my stomach. I touched on this point a bit last night, but I think Daniel Larison does a nice job of capturing my fears:

Having set the bar very low for what qualifies a conflict for humanitarian intervention in Libya, it will be harder to reject intervention in the future. Our willingness to take military action against Libya probably isn’t going to deter other governments from cracking down brutally, as the lesson they will learn from this is that they need to quash rebellions more quickly. It is going to encourage rebels around the world to expect foreign support.

Now I understand that you can't game out every single scenario or that you can prepare for all contingencies - and perhaps how this event is perceived by other rebel movements can't necessarily be a constraint from action. I also understand that just because you can't help every country doesn't mean you shouldn't help the ones you can. But still it needs to be acknowledged that we have opened up a very messy can of worms here.

Why, for example, is Libya different from Bahrain or Yemen of Cote d'Iviore if any one of those countries spiral more out of control? Does R2P only apply in nations run by flaky leaders with no key allies? If you're an oppressed citizen in a more strategically important country are you just SOL? Or are we on the hook for a host of new military interventions on par with Libya?

And what's most potentially troubling about Libya is that we've eschewed half measures. Non-military solutions to this crisis (which were the first response of the international community) have basically been ignored. The national and to some extent international debate became no-fly zone vs. dithering or "not doing the right thing." Indeed with virtually no debate the US and international community has adopted the principle that there exists a responsibility to not just intervene, but intervene militarily when a country is oppressing and murdering their people. It would be great if that became a new global norm - but I think all of us know that this isn't going to happen; and that Libya is instead going to be a one-off deal.

But then again why should any of this be a surprise? There appears to have been absolutely no thought process by the Obama Administration or the international community as to what happens next . . . in Libya. Moreover, it's not even clear that we understand much about these rebels groups that we are nominally fighting on behalf of or what their goals are. It really needs to be stated that the accusations of dithering being thrust at the Obama Administration couldn't be more off-base. A little dithering would be good in comparison to the real lack of debate and contemplation about the potential consequences of our actions. 

So while I want to be optimistic about what's about to happen in Libya, instead I see a situation in which we have created a new and unsustainable international precedent to help populations at risk; we are about to military intervene in country with no clear political strategy or endgame in mind; we have a rather poor understanding of the key actors involved in the conflict and above all, we have - as is so often the case - adopted a policy of shooting first and asking questions later.

Other than that seems like the right thing to do.

Comments

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You want to encourage civil wars? Really? Civil wars often result in economic stagnation, displaced populations, atrocities on all sides, refugee crises, the militarization of society, and the erosion of whatever civil society might have existed, and it is unusual when they produce political settlements that don’t revert to authoritarianism. Societies recovering from civil war can often relapse into conflict, and economic and political liberalization is significantly harmed. How is any of this a good thing?
One might as well say that international law and state sovereignty create the same moral hazards as non-intervention, because they generally rule out interference in the internal affairs of other states. These rules were created to reduce the incidence of international war, and for the last 20 years people have been trying to find ways to evade these rules as often as possible. The scale of human suffering and the long-term negative effects that result from warfare are generally far worse for the well-being of the population in the countries in question than the continuation of authoritarian government. Things that encourage armed conflict within countries and eliminate barriers to international warfare are extremely dangerous.
If it really were a choice between stability and peace on the one hand and the end of dictatorships on the other, I wouldn’t wish instability and conflict on other countries. Authoritarian states can develop gradually and more or less peacefully into less repressive systems of government. If one wants to encourage developments in other countries, that is what one should want to encourage.

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It is perhaps a telling slip that you inadvertently spell out the R2P concept as Right and not Responsibility to Protect, which it is actually called. And when considering the conceptual differences between the two, it strikes me that the international community has been intent on putting (the global) 'us' on the hook to be more involved in protecting civilian populations. A fundamental purpose of R2P is to prompt a quick international response that consists of full and not half-measures. This will often require military engagement to stop violent, armed conflict. I'm not really sure about what non-military responses you are referring to, but the fact is that sanctions, for example, have only entrenched Qaddafi so much so that he has virtually no choice but to fight.

Questions about the next step in this situation or how to deal with particular dictators in the future are important and do complicate the implementation of R2P going forward, but they are nonetheless secondary to the international community's commitment to a norm which it has chosen to give priority, R2P. This forces major powers (particularly UNSC members) to carefully weigh global responsibilities against protecting other norms like state sovereignty and non-intervention. And in this case, even major powers such as China, Russia and India have not blocked action in support of the new global norm of R2P.

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