Threading the Elections Needle in Egypt Posted by Jacob Stokes

As the revolution moves out of Tahrir Square and into the halls of power, it makes sense to look at historical examples for how a military-backed authoritarian government can transition to democracy. Enter this solid piece in the Wall Street Journal today that looks at Indonesia as model for making that move. The piece illustrates an important point that should inform the discussion about the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics. It shows that broad participation of Islamists parties in the system resulted in a relatively small base of support:

Karen Brooks, who helped oversee Indonesia policy in both the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations, says post-Suharto governments were particularly successful because they co-opted Islamist parties that emerged following the dictator's fall. 

One of these parties, which has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, campaigned as being untainted by the corruption of the Suharto years. That party, the Prosperous Justice Party, controls 8% of seats in Indonesia's legislature. Islamist or Islam-inspired parties in total hold 28%.

The article goes on to say, “‘Thirteen years into Indonesia's democratic transformation, the Islamist parties appear to have maxed out their popular support,’ Ms. Brooks says. Their inclusion in Jakarta's political process seemed to have ‘demystified’ their allure, she says.”

The American mainstream is capable of this kind of thinking. Just a few weeks ago, CFR President Richard Haass said that, “You want to make sure that the political space opens, because if the political space opens, the Muslim Brotherhood will have to compete and, based on everything I know about Egypt, it will have an element in the vote, but it will not be a majority.” 

Of course, this is not to say that what happened in Indonesia is directly comparable to Egypt. (Even the hint of such an assertion would send any political science professor howling.) But it’s an example worth considering, with the most important lesson from this one case being the need to create space for all parties to participate in the raucous debate of democracy. 

The inverse worry, of course, is that we never have to think about how to build a democracy in Egypt because the military retains power. STRATFOR’s George Friedman continues to raise this specter. We’ve seen a coup happen in Egypt, albeit one with the backing of opposition groups. But it’s a coup nonetheless. The question is, how long will it last? 

Rob Farley points to some recent research on the success of moving from military coup to democracy. He finds reason for optimism. The research finds that after the Cold War, coups have been subjected to a growing “electoral norm” – in other words, it’s tougher for the military to retain support and, by extension power, if they’re not making credible steps toward democracy. 

So that’s the needle the U.S. should be trying to thread: Ensure that there’s enough time to make sure the political system is open and fair, parties can create platforms, get their names out, etc., while at the same ensuring the military continues to make progress on the transition to democracy.

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