Running Out the Clock in Egypt Posted by Jacob Stokes

As the heady early days of the January 25 movement start to drag into the dull work of figuring out what’s next, the standoff between protestors and the government has turned into a waiting game. The regime wants to wait out the protestors, ceding as few concessions as possible along the way. The protestors, meanwhile, must struggle to keep up the momentum and pressure they’ve accumulated to exact real political change.

Joshua Stacher, writing in Foreign Affairs, makes the argument that the regime – of which the Egyptian military, although a highly respected institution, is still very much a central part – is playing both “the arsonist and firefighter” in this waiting game. That is, the police are seeding chaos in the streets, and creating an opening for the army to bolster its public support by returning stability. 

By employing this two-pronged strategy, Stacher argues, the regime is making life very difficult for the part of the Egyptian citizenry who aren’t the hardcore protestors lying in front of tanks in Tahrir. Stacher explains the growing exasperation of many Egyptians: 

Although some of these citizens may have sympathized with the protesters initially, their mood appears to be shifting. People are tired of being cooped up in their apartments, made anxious as their stockpiles of food and money decrease, and they are ready for a sense of "normalcy" to return. Ironically, the normalcy they pine for resembles the police state so many tried to banish just thirteen days ago. This method of wearing down the non-protesting public seems just as strategic as the violence employed on those airing their grievances in the streets. 

Steve Cook of CFR, who wrote a book on the Egyptian military, predicted this strategy back on Jan. 31:

What is the strategy? To contain and control the protests for as long as possible and play for time.  From the perspective of Mubarak, Vice President Omar Soleiman, the chief-of-staff General Sami Annan and the others now clinging to power every day provides an opportunity to try to weaken the opposition and peel the less committed from the demonstrations.  Is it any wonder that Soleiman started talking about constitutional change today?  The senior command believes they can save the regime.  Delusional?  Perhaps, but not surprising given their deep links to the regime.

The senior command’s belief that they’ll be able to retain the regime in some form seems to be less delusional at this point. This presents a tough problem for the Obama administration, which has essentially backed a military-led transition process towards democracy: How do you allow the military to serve as a bulwark of stability without playing into the regime’s strategy for maintaining a tight grip on power, even if it’s not in the person of Hosni Mubarak? 

I’m guessing the solution will be for the administration to start talking tough about ending military aid. But that is undoubtedly a blunt tool, and one fraught with political briar patches. If the administration decides to use it, the threat of ending military aid should come with clear benchmarks to guide the Egyptian regime’s behavior. Just as we need to be tough-minded and realistic about what a democratic Egypt would look like – certainly not America’s best friend, but hardly the start of a new global caliphate either -- we need to employ the same toughness and nuance in pushing the current regime towards a government that truly represents the Egyptian people.

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