Democracy Arsenal

« That Wacky, Wacky Krauthammer | Main | Don't Believe the Hype: The Surge as a Sequel »

February 11, 2011

Back to the Top of the Slide
Posted by Eric Martin

While it is understandable that there is a reluctance on the part of the Department of Defense to use bodycounts to measure progress in Afghanistan, Joshua Foust took note of a pretty damning announcement regarding insurgent numbers from the Afghan Ministry of Defense:

The strength of Taliban insurgents and other anti-government elements estimated to be between 25,000 to 35,000 in the militancy-hit Afghanistan, Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Zahir Azimi said on Wednesday.

The reason those numbers should cause concern is that the estimate of Taliban/insurgents strength bears a striking resemblence to estimates in 2009 and, in fact, 2001 at the onset of the conflict.

Though estimates of Taliban strength dipped considerably in the years immediately following the onset of the US military intervention, that the figure has returned to the status quo ante, and remained fairly constant throughout the past few years, despite rather significant fluctuations in US/allied troop levels and shifts in tactical approaches, points to a list of possible conclusions - all of which are unsettling in their own right. As Foust notes:

  • We have no idea who’s out there, or in what numbers;
  • An enormous, expensive build-up in troops has not noticeably diminished the numbers of Taliban (or, in a worst case scenario, created 10,000 more);
  • There was initial success in diminishing the Taliban, but their numbers have grown; or
  • The Taliban are recruiting new people far more quickly than we can reconcile or kill off.

Each of those options militate in favor of pursuing a different strategy.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451c04d69e2014e5f282852970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Back to the Top of the Slide:

Comments

Admiring the time and effort you put into your blog and detailed information you offer! I will bookmark your blog and have my children check up here often. Thumbs up!


Hey very nice blog!! Man .. Beautiful .. Amazing .. I will bookmark your blog and take the feeds also..

You gave great points here. I did some research on the subject and have found nearly all people agree with your blog.

It's a nice place to share my thoughts. I'm willing to stick around here and watch it grow. As i also want to learn how to grow mine.

This was when NATO airstrike killed five Afghan soldiers after they were mistaken for insurgents.. Very irresponsible act!

to the status quo ante, and remained fairly constant throughout the past few years, despite rather significant fluctuations in US/allied troop levels and shifts in tactical approaches, points to a list of possible conclusions - all of which are unsettling in their own right. As Foust notes

Very nice illustrations or photos, I need these kind of people ! I became a number of them liek regarding referring to you ought to look. Hey there to get the best french, I'm certainly spanish.

dmiring the time and effort you put into your blog and detailed information you offer! I will bookmark your blog and have my children check up here often

TY, wonderful job! This was the info I needed to know.

it is good
watch5
whowatch
watchse
uwatch
Uwatch
iwatch
needwatch
watcheslife
livewatch

The comments to this entry are closed.

Subscribe
Sign-up to receive a weekly digest of the latest posts from Democracy Arsenal.
Email: 
Powered by TypePad

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced on Democracy Arsenal are those of the individual authors and do not represent the views of any other organization or institution with which any author may be affiliated.
Read Terms of Use