Is the Fuel Swap Back? Again? Posted by Kelsey Hartigan

Could it be?  Is the Zombie fuel deal back?

With the P5 + 1 talks kicking off tomorrow in Istanbul, rumors of a revived fuel swap are surfacing.  Again. 

Iran has denied claims that it intends to propose new terms for a fuel swap and the U.S. is saying that it’s open to the idea but not sure it wants to be the one to bring it up. It’s hard to remember, but despite all of the hype, the original Tehran Research Reactor deal was never intended to solve the Iranian nuclear question.  It was however, supposed to serve as a confidence building measure.  A big baby step of sorts.  If the reports are true and parties are once again considering a fuel swap, it’s possible that this time around there could be some progress on the enrichment debate. Or at least the appearance of progress. 

In December, Hillary Clinton confirmed that Iran is "entitled to the peaceful use of civil nuclear energy," if and when Iran can demonstrate that that it is complying with its international obligations. A few Iran hawks on the Hill decided they didn't agree with this and announced instead that they preferred to "continue ratcheting up" the pressure on Iran, which for the record, is ridiculous. 

The U.S. and its partners have the right to demand that Iran temporarily halt its enrichment, but Iran’s hardliners can be counted on to torpedo any agreement that advertises such a requirement.  The original TRR deal went south after Western diplomats publicly congratulated themselves for pulling a fast one on Iran and Ahmadinejad ran into trouble at home. It's hard for some to remember, but even Ahmadinejad has a base.

Political infighting has hindered the regime’s ability to make a deal. But as Gary Sick has pointed out, we know that Iran wants to make a deal.  Ahmadinejad just needs to figure out how to sell it. 

Based on their very candid discussions, the Turks saw Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as "more flexible" on this issue than others inside the Iranian government but still under "huge pressure" from conservatives. Despite all the bad blood, the Iranians told the Turks that they would prefer to get the reactor fuel directly from the United States rather than from Russia and that they trusted the Americans more than the British. The Turks asked Ahmadinejad point blank if the core of the issue was psychological rather than substance. Ahmadinejad said that it was, yes, basically a matter of public perception.

As the talks get underway, it appears there is an opening to make progress on a central issue that carries a lot of political weight for everyone involved.  It's unlikely that all of this is going to be worked out in the next two days.  But that's why it is important to continue with the engagement track. There needs to be a process in place to work through the specifics. As Laura Rozen reports, if it’s done right, a new deal might even offer the Iranians the right political cover to begin to seriously address the enrichment question.

Washington Iran analysts say that in the run up to the Geneva talks last month, Washington and its P5+1 partners offered Iran an updated Iran nuclear fuel swap deal under which Iran would ship out virtually its entire stockpile of low and higher enriched uranium, in exchange for internationally-provided nuclear fuel rods that would supply the country’s Bushehr nuclear power plant as well as its Tehran Research Reactor, which provides isotopes to treat Iranian cancer patients.

While the deal would deprive Iran of almost all of its fissile material, it would in effect allow Iran to keep its enrichment program, said Patrick Clawson, deputy director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“It doesn’t take a genius to see that while the package looks to be a tougher stance, what it is in fact hinting to Iran is that it would be able to keep its existing centrifuges,” Clawson told POLITICO Wednesday. “That’s a good deal for Iran.”

Several previous UN Security Council resolutions “call for Iran to suspend enrichment, not to give up its right to enrichment, " noted Andrew Parasiliti, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the U.S. “It might be worth discussing in Istanbul whether an agreement on the fuel swap might provide the opportunity, and diplomatic cover, for Iran to justify a pause in its enrichment activities, as under the swap Iran would receive enriched nuclear fuel from abroad."

It's a long shot, but stay tuned.

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