How Not to Deal With Iran Posted by David Shorr

 Kudos to Kelsey Hartigan for her critique of this week's 5-senator letter to President Obama on the Iranian nuclear program, which is indeed wrongheaded and counterproductive. The signers of the letter published Monday by Josh Rogin's The Cable (Sens. Lieberman, Kyl, Casey, Gillibrand, and Kirk) lay out red-lines that leave the president scant room to reach a feasible diplomatic solution. It's a double whammy of a provocative strategy pointing toward an unworkable objective.

First, we strongly support the cascade of measures that have been put in place over the past several months by your Administration, in cooperation with our partners around the world, to increase the pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. We applaud and are encouraged by the strong actions taken thus far by the Administration to secure meaningful economic and diplomatic sanctions against the Iranian regime, which are absolutely essential for any prospect of a peaceful resolution to this challenge.

Well that's darn charitable of them. Applause, mind you, from Senators Lieberman and Kyl! Just lovely. Ah, but the other hand takes away what the first has so generously given...

Second, we believe that it is absolutely essential that the United States and its partners make clear to the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran that we intend to continue ratcheting up this pressure, through comprehensive enforcement of existing sanctions as well as imposition of new measures, until the full... [I'll come back to this next part later.]

Translation: the shelf-life of our "strong support" has just about expired; so it's time for more sanctions. Apparently the senators don't see any contradiction between all that "cooperation with our partners around the world" and insisting that "the pressure track should likewise continue on its current trajectory." I hate to break it to them, but the international support for those essential sanctions depends on their trust that the United States is being the reasonable party and that Iran has a fair opportunity to cooperate. If the US stays unrelentingly on the pressure track, making constant demands for major sets of new sanctions, we're likely to see weakening rather than strengthening support.

Coincidentally, I just the other day embarked on a consensus-seeking bipartisan dialogue with Shadow Government's Will Inboden, hoping to set terms for a more constructive debate on when to negotiate with problem-creating governments. From my side of the dialogue, I expressed the following concern in the North Korea context:

The ratcheting up of sanctions that Inboden mentions is an impulse often expressed in the debate over negotiating, one that tends to carry a partisan edge. Obviously sanctions are important -- the Obama Administration labored mightily for several months straight to achieve them for Iran -- but is this going to be another round of measuring the administrations seriousness about North Korea based purely on this question? 

So there we are.  Now besides a fair opportunity to work out a diplomatic solution, Iran will need a solution that's a fair deal for them. This is no contradiction with the fact that Iran bears the main burden of proving its civilian intentions and earning IAEA reports showing their full cooperation and transparency. A key premise of the process is Iran's obligation to the international community. But it's a premise on which you can push your luck. If the US is looking for a deal with no concessions to Iranian wishes, no face-saving for Tehran, forget it. Now how does the senators' letter rate on that score?

Third, we remain concerned about the possibility that the Iranian regime will seek to buy time or otherwise dilute the focus of our diplomacy through unrelated "confidence-building measures" that fail to address the core concerns...

...and...

Fourth, we believe that it is critical that the United States and our partners make clear that, given the government of Iran's pattern of deception and noncooperation, its government cannot be permitted to maintain any enrichment or reprocessing activities on its territory for the foreseable future.

I have the strangest sensation of deja vu. Yep, it's the Bolton-Cheney approach to negotiations all over again. Those interested in the details of the enrichment issue can go back to ForeignPolicy.com to read Michael Adler or Josh Rogin's interview with Secretary Clinton. I'll just make a few final points here. A question for the senators: are we talking about a negotiation or an out-and-out humiliation / capitulation? Haven't we learned that this approach simply does not work?

And it's not just that the letter-writers are looking for the Iranians to completely cave, they want Tehran to do it all at once, with none of this incremenal confidence-building nonsense. But tell us how you really feel about trusting the Obama administration to uphold US national interests. The final thing I'd point out is that the October 2009 deal to swap Iran's uranium for civilian fuel from Russia was just such a confidence-builder, and the administration justifiably looked askance at a warmed-over version of the deal eight months later -- which you'd think might give them some credibility on the issue of not allowing ourselves to be strung along. If anything, I think one of the admin's mistakes was in failing to declare more clearly and earlier that the deal was null and void.

Honestly, I didn't appreciate just how mistrustful and undercutting the senators' letter was when I started writing this post.

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