Les Gelb on the Importance of the Economy for American Power Posted by Jacob Stokes

Les Gelb has a great piece in the new issue of Foreign Affairs. It makes a case that should be obvious to policymakers, one that was obvious up until about Ronald Reagan: that the strength of the U.S. economy underpins American power. Gelb takes that one step further even and says GDP is now more important than military strength.

The piece has a lot of good stuff in it, so read the whole thing (subscription required), but I think the profound parts came mostly in critiques of American national security strategy. Gelb points out that American strategy has essentially ignored the health of the economy and then offers thoughts on how to orient U.S. national security policy to include more consideration of economic factors. Some highlights below.

U.S. strategy ignores economic power.

Having overlooked profound changes in the world, U.S. leaders have done little to modernize their national security strategy. Present U.S. strategy offers too little bang for its buck because there is not enough buck in the strategy. A new way of thinking about U.S. interests and power must aim for a foreign policy fitted to a world in which economic concerns typically -- but not always -- outweigh traditional military imperatives.

How being global guarantor of security has eroded focus on maintaining economic strength.

And yet, for all the novel characteristics of the present era, there is one stunning constant: the national security strategy of the United States. Whereas other countries have adjusted to the new economics-based order, Washington has been tardy. This should not be surprising. For over half a century, U.S. foreign policy had to give priority to stemming real and serious threats. No other nation could or would shoulder the responsibilities. Even now, no other nation or group of nations can lead coalitions against terrorists and nuclear proliferation threats. The United States cannot ignore these burdens, but it must adjust its approach to recognize that economics is now at the center of geopolitics. Washington's failure to do so has already cost it in blood, treasure, and influence. Now, in the second decade of the twenty-first century, leaders in Washington proclaim their awareness of the new economic order but lack any semblance of a new national security strategy to embrace it.

 Truman and Eisenhower as examples for deterrence.

The best U.S. strategy for this new era is to update the approach taken by Truman and Eisenhower during the early Cold War. Its underlying principles were to make the American economy the top priority, even if it meant tamping down military spending and military interventions; to strengthen the economies of key allies, especially in Western Europe and Japan, to lessen their vulnerability to Soviet pressure and increase their value as allies; and to fend off threats by means of containment, deterrence, and a policy of providing military and economic assistance to partners worldwide.

How presidents can leverage foreign threats to spur investment at home.

To strengthen the economy, Truman and Eisenhower leveraged foreign threats to initiate economic projects at home. Eisenhower used the Soviets' launching of Sputnik to advocate crash programs in math and science, for example, and he convinced Congress to build the national highway system in order to strengthen the country against the Soviet military threat. Similarly, leaders today could press for more math and science education to restore U.S. trade competitiveness and could leverage the threat of terrorism to provide more money for building physical infrastructure, which would increase U.S. resiliency against terrorist attacks and enhance the country's overall economic efficiency.

What would have to happen to sell a more econ-focused strategy politically.

No matter how compelling the case for an economic focus to U.S. strategy, the effort will falter unless Washington makes clear that first, focusing on economics will not weaken national security and, second, it is constantly developing new ways to confront today's threats. The starting point is to reassure the public about China and, to a far lesser extent, Russia. Neither country can seriously challenge U.S. military power beyond its borders. Moscow's conventional military forces are weak and in decline, and its army counts only near home. China's military is indeed increasing in strength, but it will take decades before it approaches parity with the United States', if then.

When nation-building’s benefits can be worth the costs. (Cough, Afghanistan, Cough!)

The strategic question here is whether to combat these dangers with substantial military interventions or to rely on deterrence, containment, and aid. Land wars should be undertaken if and only if the following criteria are met: the threat is unique to the country posing it and clearly a danger to U.S. security; only land forces can neutralize that threat, and they can do so within a few years and at a reasonable cost; and the local population will fight for itself, fully supporting the effort and understanding from the outset that it will be its own prime defender. Short of that, the United States should stick to aid and diplomacy to combat threats.

On priorities, especially the importance of clean energy.

In this environment, the first-tier foreign policy goals of the United States should be a strong economy and the ability to deploy effective counters to threats at the lowest possible cost. Second-tier goals, which are always more controversial, include retaining the military power to remain the world's power balancer, promoting freer trade, maintaining technological advantages (including cyberwarfare capabilities), reducing risks from various environmental and health challenges, developing alternative energy supplies, and advancing U.S. values such as democracy and human rights. Wherever possible, second-tier goals should reinforce first-tier ones: for example, it makes sense to err on the side of freer trade to help boost the economy and to invest in greater energy independence to reduce dependence on the tumultuous Middle East.

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