It's the economy, stupid: AfPak edition Posted by Jacob Stokes

Reading CFR’s new task force report on “U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan,” I couldn’t help but notice how much emphasis was (rightfully) put on the economic aspects of a regional strategy. I’ve pulled three portions from the report below that illustrate essential parts of that strategy that are missing right now. All of these things should play into a comprehensive strategy for security for the region; none of them get talked about enough. (Instead, they’re often lost in the daily melee about whose metrics on insurgent momentum you believe.)

On the need for growth and jobs to prevent backsliding among militants:

Afghanistan lacks the economic growth that would permit it to sustain government revenues and reduce the appeals of illicit activities, like narcotics and smuggling. (26)

Unless Afghan and international businesspeople take a long-term interest in Afghanistan, Kabul will never expand its revenue stream, and there will never be enough jobs for ex-militia members. In that case, whatever near-term stability the surge might deliver would soon be washed away by renewed violence. (63)

On the need to build an ANSF that can be maintained with a combination of Afghan government revenue and realistic (read: low) amounts of funding that are likely to come from Congress and the international community down the road (read again: once Americans aren’t fighting and dying there):

So far, the United States has spent more than $26 billion to build the ANSF, and current plans would require $6 billion per year through 2015. (41)

Projections for future financial requirements are likely to face increasingly tough budget battles in the U.S. Congress. (44)

As it builds the Afghan army, NATO should therefore continue to devote its main resources to building light infantry forces. It is not clear, for instance, that current plans to fund fixed-wing aircraft and training for the Afghan National Army Air Corps are critical to the most urgent missions at hand… As of 2008, the Afghan government could provide only $320 million toward the annual cost of the ANSF, a figure recently projected at $6 billion to $7 billion. (61)

On why lifting cotton and textile tariffs on imports from Pakistan is the “single most effective step the United States could take to stimulate the Pakistani economy,” (49) and by extension, bolster the Pakistani state and combat extremism borne out of want. I find these numbers staggering:

U.S. tariffs on Pakistan’s leading exports, such as textiles, average about four times the U.S. tariff rate on imports from other countries. Since nearly 40 percent of Pakistan’s industrial employment is in textiles, it is likely that millions of Pakistanis could benefit from greater access to the U.S. market for these goods. (38)

The United States is Pakistan’s top export market. Currently, one-quarter of Pakistan’s exports are bound for the United States, and one-third of foreign investment in Pakistan comes from U.S.-based investors… Given that the textile industry accounts for 38 percent of Pakistan’s industrial employment, this agreement could provide employment opportunities for millions of young Pakistanis, discouraging them from paths leading to militancy. (49)

As I said, the above points are three separate issues, but I think they illustrate a common point: Think of the millions of pixels and barrels of ink that have been expended blogging and writing about American military strategy. That’s well and good – of course, military strategy is important. But compare that to how rarely we see discussion of an economic strategy for rebuilding the AfPak region, one that goes beyond replacing poppy crops that fund the Taliban or occasional stories about Afghan mineral deposits. Comparatively, discussion of economic strategy is a drop in the bucket, even if, as the report notes, it’s critical for tamping down extremism and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan and maintaining the nation ISAF is in the process of building – especially once ISAF is gone.

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