What Is PJ Crowley Possibly Thinking? Posted by Michael Cohen

One of the most difficult parts of chronicling the US war in Afghanistan is keeping track of some of the utterly head-scratching, divorced from reality statements that come out of the mouths of US military officers and diplomats.

Yesterday's statement from State Department spokesmen PJ Crowley about political reconciliation in Afghanistan is a quintessential example of this phenomenon:

The United States said Thursday it cannot see Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar meeting criteria for peace talks with the Afghan government and playing a constructive role in Afghanistan's future.

US State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said Taliban foot-soldiers and leaders could participate in Afghanistan's future if they renounce violence, cut ties with Al-Qaeda and support the Afghan constitution. But he doubted the opportunity would be seized by Mullah Omar, the Taliban's one-eyed leader who is believed to be hiding in Pakistan and who, the Washington Post said last week, backs secret high-level peace talks with Kabul.

"From our view, Mullah Omar has been attached at the hip to bin Laden for some time. So, based on everything that we know about him today, in fact he will not meet the criteria that we have laid out," Crowley told reporters. "He had many opportunities during the '90s and even after 9/11 to disassociate himself from Osama bin Laden. He chose not to," Crowley said.

"So you know, there's nothing that we see that indicates that Mullah Omar will, in fact, change his stripes. As a result, we don't see that he qualifies to play a constructive role in Afghanistan's future."

Perhaps my favorite part about Crowley's statement is the notion that the Taliban won't show they are serious about peace talks if they don't, "renounce violence, cut ties with Al-Qaeda and support the Afghan constitution." So apparently the State Department now defines "seriousness" as surrender. And this by the way is the diplomatic agency of the world's most powerful country.

Crowley's argument is just fundamentally unserious . . . well let me take that back. It's actually a tad more serious than the far more unserious notion that the former leader of Afghanistan, who has led a nine-year insurgency against the current government and leads a movement that has shadow governors in every district in Afghanistan is not qualified to "play a constructive role in Afghanistan's future."

The mind truly reels. Does the State Department really believe that Mullah Omar, who leads the largest Afghan Taliban insurgent group in Pakistan (and perhaps the less radical one), is unqualified to play a role in Afghanistan's future? Then who exactly is the United States or perhaps more directly, the Afghan government, planning to negotiate with if not Mullah Omar? Seriously, I'd really be curious to know, based on Crowley's statement, under what framework and with which interlocutors will reconciliation be possible because this statement seems to place the bar so high on negotiations even beginning that it's very hard to see how you get the Taliban to the table.

And to take the craziness of this a step further - how do you think Crowley's statement will play among the Taliban leadership? You have preliminary indications that Taliban leaders are at least interested in pursuing political negotiations - maybe it's real, maybe it's not but certainly as SecDef Gates and SecState Gates indicated it's an option worth pursuing

And yet here you have the State Department spokesman saying hold on, Mullah Omar has "no constructive role to play" in this process; the Taliban have to basically surrender before we'll talk to them. How does that help the process of reconciliation or even build trust between possible negotiating partners? It's mind-boggingly ill-advised and counter-productive.

But then you can't spend any serious time trying to follow the course of US decision-making on the war in Afghanistan and not come to the conclusion that this is pretty much par for the course.

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Michael, Crowley also said several times that this is an Afghan process. I suggest you go to the source and not rely on news reports.

Speaking of reading the source document, I think you'd like to comment on this.

QUESTION: I’d like to just go back to Afghanistan for a moment. Why shouldn’t people conclude that after a decade of warfare and the expenditure of considerable numbers of American and allied lives and significant amounts of U.S. taxpayers and other countries’ taxpayers’ money, that a decade later you’ve to the conclusion that you just can’t defeat the Taliban and so your only bet, your best bet, is to just try to work out a deal with them if they’ll change their outlook?

MR. CROWLEY: Well, Arshad, I would highly recommend the counterinsurgency manual that the military put out under the leadership one of one David Petraeus. Again, there’s – we are following our strategy which is rooted in the analysis that we’ve done, he’s done on counterinsurgencies – how they are fought and how they come to a successful conclusion. I think General Petraeus has said many, many times in public that this will be one through a combination of military action and political action. So we are following our strategy. That strategy is rooted in a counterinsurgency doctrine that has been developed within the government. We are doing exactly what we said we would do and we’re following the basics of our strategy as we laid it out earlier this year.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2010/10/149451.htm

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