Lessons of Iraq - The Two Andrews Version UPDATE Posted by Michael Cohen

Over at TNR, the always upbeat Andrew Bacevich has an smart post arguing that the United States has learned nothing from the war in Iraq:

The Americans are bowing out, having achieved few of the ambitious goals articulated in the heady aftermath of Baghdad’s fall. The surge, now remembered as an epic feat of arms, functions chiefly as a smokescreen, obscuring a vast panorama of recklessness, miscalculation, and waste that politicians, generals, and sundry warmongers are keen to forget. 

Back in Iraq, meanwhile, nothing has been resolved and nothing settled. Round one of the Iraq war produced a great upheaval that round two served only to exacerbate. As the convoys of U.S. armored vehicles trundle south toward Kuwait and then home, they leave the stage set for round three. 

. . . As U.S. forces have withdrawn, they have done so in an orderly fashion. In their own eyes, they remain unbeaten and unbeatable. As the troops pull out, the American people are already moving on: Even now, Afghans have displaced Iraqis as the beneficiaries of Washington’s care and ministrations. Oddly, even disturbingly, most of us—our memories short, our innocence intact—seem content with the outcome. The United States leaves Iraq having learned nothing.

He's right. But as I noted the other day, the dangerous lesson of Iraq is that we've convinced ourselves that the US can stabilize war-torn environments, we get counter-insurgency and our tactical decision-making can be determinative in ending insurgencies. All of this is poppycock of course, as we are seeing in Afghanistan. And right on cue, Andrew Exum makes the following observation:

I think we have learned a lot, tactically, operationally, and strategically, and I think the American people will in the future be more wary of the kind of military adventurism that led to the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Bacevich should take heart in this. 

And Andrew wonders why Bacevich is cranky.

Let's put aside for one moment the obvious fact that Iraq has hardly made policymakers, virtually the entire DC foreign policy establishment and the "American people" less reluctant to engage in military adventurism. You don't believe me: cast your gaze over to the 100,000 troops fighting a local Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan in a war that literally could not be more tangential to US interests and national security. Even if Exum is technically correct that we won't invade and occupy another country any time soon (which I'll get to in a second), that's hardly Bacevich's point. It's that we choose to believe in the sanctity of our decisions to go war and overestimate the capabilities of our military to advance US interests (this is not to mention the fact that we consistently overinflate those interests and chose to further our interests almost always with the sharp end of the spear).

Bacevich is right: we've basically learned nothing from Iraq. In fact, we've learned less than nothing, because the lessons we are taking from Iraq - pithily rounded-up in Exum's quote - are negative and dangerous lessons about the proper uses of American military power that are likely to lead to more not less adventurism in the future.

And as for the notion that the American people have turned their back on "military adventurism"; that's even worse. You could have made that argument after Vietnam; you could have made it in the 1990s when we fought wars in the most limited manner manageable; hell you could have made that argument on September 10, 2001.

Then 19 guys kill 3,000 Americans and guess what: we're fighting two foreign wars at a cost of a trillion dollars in direct violation of pretty much every principle that drove the use of US military power for the previous 20 years.

So much for lessons learned.

UPDATE: Over at Thinking Strategically, Aaron Ellis has read this post and drawn an interpretation that is . . . well I'm not sure how to properly describe it. He says, "From reading his latest ‘Never again!’ piece, however, one can’t help think that Cohen believes using force can’t achieve anything."

I mean I suppose that is one interpretation; of course it's also completely wrong and I'm at a loss to see how Aaron gets there. For example, unlike many of my liberal brethren I'm fully supportive of the use of force, via drones, in NW Pakistan. The first Gulf War seems like a smart and effective use of American military power. Kosovo (ish). 

But here is a good example of an unwise use of force: invading and occupying a medium-sized Arab country that posed no significant threat to the United States or its vital interests. As I noted in earlier threads there were force packages that would have made sense in dealing with Saddam Hussein - invasion and occupation was not one of them. Believing that the Iraq War was a disastrous strategic decision is not the same thing as believing that wars can never achieve policy goals. I mean isn't that sort of obvious?

Here is another example of a bad strategic decision to go to war: sending 100,000 troops to Afghanistan to fight a counterinsurgency against an enemy that poses no threat to US security, particularly when other force packages (like the aforementioned drone war) would more effectively further US interests and at a much lower cost.

I suppose the takeaway here is that the use of force should be effectively calibrated so that it is commensurate with actual national interests. That was not the case in Iraq; it is, in my view, not the case today in Afghanistan.

I hope that clarifies things. 

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