West Bank Attacks -- The Spoiler's Gambit Posted by David Shorr

In order to demonstrate their opposition to the reopened Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Hamas is murdering Israeli settlers. At one level, this week's terrorist attacks are inhuman and merciless. At another level, the killings are calculated in their petulance, and I think it's worth pondering Hamas' aspirations as spoilers of peace.

One thought is that when you see Hamas as obstructionist rivals to the Palestinian Authority's Fatah government, they don't look like shock troops of World War IV. Obviously they are a threat to the security of Israelis, which is a constant concern for Israel's security services (which had jurisdiction over the site of the Tuesday attack) and a quandary for the peace process itself. But the threat of attacks on Israeli citizens isn't the same as a strategic threat to the state of Israel. My point is a narrow one: that it's one thing to take the threat from terrorists seriously, and another to ascribe capabilities wildly beyond what they actually have. I'll also stress that in making this point, I have in mind the domestic politics here in the US as much as the situation in Israel.

The other thought regards Hamas' opposition not just to Israel, but to peace. We often tend to focus on the you-can't-make-peace-with-those-people political stance in the conflict, and gloss over the stakes in the status quo. Hamas is attacking this week because peace would be bad for Hamas. For them, the current situation of one state and two fiefdoms is preferable to two states. The talks therefore pose a threat.

And then finally, a serious question of political analysis. As we know, President Obama's decision to jump into Middle East peace with both feet put some of his political capital on the line. We've seen eloquent arguments from Steve Clemons (pro) and Aaron David Miller (con) over the wisdom of this move. My question is about Netanyahu. Obviously he'll be under a lot of pressure from his political base to not succeed in reaching an agreement. I'd like to know whether his optimistic statements about the prospects represent a real investment of his credibility, or whether he can always walk away political cost-free.

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