Can We Get Some Straight Talk on Afghanistan? Posted by Michael Cohen

So I thought President Obama did a nice job in his Iraq speech last night - it sort of threaded the needle of praising the soldiers, while refusing to say that the war was somehow worth it. I was pleasantly surprised that Obama didn't concede to that usual DC refrain of trying to find something positive in even the worst of American behavior. 

But let's talk about Afghanistan, because as is too often the case his words fell woefully short:

Now, as we approach our 10th year of combat in Afghanistan, there are those who are understandably asking tough questions about our mission there. But we must never lose sight of what's at stake. As we speak, al Qaeda continues to plot against us, and its leadership remains anchored in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan. We will disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda, while preventing Afghanistan from again serving as a base for terrorists. 

Why does Barack Obama keep saying this? First of all, some remnants of al Qaeda are in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan - but that region is in Pakistan, not Afghanistan. Al Qaeda has not had a serious presence in Afghanistan for 8 years; Barack Obama knows this and the fact that he keeps fudging the point - well it's not good. And while al Qaeda may continue to plot against us does anyone really believe that this is a serious threat to US security - or certainly a threat worthy of a 100,000 man troop commitment? Even our own intelligence agencies see a greater AQ threat to the US emanating from Yemen then they do Pakistan. 

The President is really close to the line of just misleading the American people about the nature of the threat from al Qaeda and the nature of the current US war, which is almost exclusively predicated on fighting the Taliban.

But then there was this:

As was the case in Iraq, we cannot do for Afghans what they must ultimately do for themselves. That's why we are training Afghan Security Forces and supporting a political resolution to Afghanistan's problems. And, next July, we will begin a transition to Afghan responsibility. The pace of our troop reductions will be determined by conditions on the ground, and our support for Afghanistan will endure. But make no mistake: this transition will begin - because open-ended war serves neither our interests nor the Afghan people's.

You know what would be awesome - if we could get the President and this Petraeus guy in the same room to hash this thing out, because I detect some daylight between these words . . . and these: 

Petraeus said the commitment in Afghanistan will be enduring, and would not say how many U.S. troops will begin to leave under Obama's July 2011 transition timeline.

"It would premature to have any kind of assessment at this juncture as to about what we may or may not be able to transition," he said. But, he added, any troop movement will be based on the conditions on the ground.

Now I realize I am closely parsing here, but you have Petraeus raising suggestions that the transition to responsibility and even the withdrawal of US troops could be delayed. (That certainly is also the upshot from his Meet the Press appearance last month). Now I realize that it's only natural for the General to keep his options open, but the President is rather declarative here - the transition will begin next July. But it really does seem as though it is the Petraeus language - and not the President's -- that is operative. 

So why does Obama keep saying that the transition will begin next June? And look maybe it will; and maybe he says what he means. I really don't know; but you'd have a hard time finding anyone in Washington who believes that transition will be anything but token.

At some point, the President is going to have to level with the American people about the nature of the US commitment to Afghanistan; he's going to have to stop using misleading rhetoric to make the war in Afghanistan seem like a greater threat to US national security then it actually is; he's going to have to stop suggesting that the war in Afghanistan is about fighting al Qaeda when it's really about fighting the Taliban; his Administration needs to stop sending mixed signals on whether June 2011 means anything as far as a withdrawal of US troops; he's going to have to lay out what the US end game in Afghanistan looks like . . . because to date he hasn't done it.

You know, I'm a huge fan of the President. I think his record of domestic accomplishment is perhaps the most impressive since LBJ; and I generally like and trust the guy. But his record on Afghanistan is, for a lack of better word, abysmal and it's hardly befitting the awesome office that he holds. 

There are legitimate reasons to maintain a troop presence in Afghanistan; there are near-term goals there that are worth fighting for - but increasingly when I listen to the President describe them I feel like I'm listening to a used car salesman trying to sell me a lemon.

Comments

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"any troop movement will be based on the conditions on the ground."

I got sick of hearing that line of BS from Dubya and it doesn't sound any better coming from Obama.

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Where does the president say that the withdrawals he promises won't be 'token'? You can be assured you'll feel they're token, and if you feel that way, there are no words you'll be able to refer back to to claim you were told they would not be. Yu say you see daylight between the men's words, but than have to admit you are arsing closely. That is because what the two are saying on the matter is *clearly*, *obviously* compatable. You are right, though that the president needs to level with the public about the impetus and scope of the mission. Unfortunately, my sense is that his thinking is not so clear as you think -- that he is not obfuscating abut truths he knows, but rather is himself himself misled or self-deluded about some of the fundamental questions. I also believe he lacks the policy options, trustworthy civilian and military staff, and above all political language and cover to carry out a major shift. He's set the policy; he's sticking with it.

There are various possible explanations for your observation that progressives have failed to give their president options and political space on the question of Afghanistan. One possible combination is that they a) don't see any good options, and b) don't want to think very hard about it because it's not "their" war, or they just hate war to begin with, and so simply take the easiest cop-out position available: being 'against' the war, which is a position not president could fulfill, especially one with this president's record of positions. This eliminates all space for him to move as it makes his dependent on the pro-war right, and makes the progressive left irrelevant as a political force on the question. If we're realistic about it, we know that there simply isn't a constituency for a limited war in Afghanistan. The people who want us out want us out - they're not going to happy with a somewhat altered mission that merely allows for a smaller commitment. And those who want us to fight won't accept as a way forward an approach denigrated by the leading military lights as leading to "Chaosistan,' & that they've said under-resources the only strategy that has any chance to succeed. If there were a significant part of the military that felt another approach was viable and thought it could carry one out, we'd be hearing from them. We're not. Instead, those opposed to COIN want pretty much nothing to do with Afghanistan, while those not leading the COIN revolution have been chastened enough by failure in Iraq to accept the new doctrine. There may be theoretical alternative missions to pursue in Afghanistan, but neither a cadre of military officers confident in their ability to carry one out nor a domestic political constituency for any such is in evidence. The emergence of the former could help create the latter, and if they exist, let such a group of dissident military officers be heard from loudly (via their representatives in the civilian military-affairs intellectual community, or retired officers who can represent their views, of course). But without such factors present in the situation facing the commander-in-chief, I don't see where he has real choices other than to fight the war using the approach that the top military thinkers find & publicly express to be the most appropriate for the situation in Afghanistan, or to withdraw and accept the consequences.

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