The "We Care About Afghan Civilians Myth" Posted by Michael Cohen

Spencer Ackerman responds to my post about civilian casualties with the following observation:

Here’s where those who base their opposition to the war its promotion of human suffering have to meet halfway as well. If the U.S. stops prosecuting its end of the war, civilian casualties will not end. What will end is the civilian casualties we directly cause. The Taliban-led coalition will continue its insurgency until victory or negotiation, with all the acceleration of civilian casualties that will entail. (I would think it’s likely that the Taliban would greet an abrupt U.S. withdrawal, in the absence of a capable Afghan security apparatus, as a disincentive to negotiate, since its coalition will perceive itself to be winning. Negotiations would become a venue for the Karzai government to capitulate.)

Now, you can argue that such a circumstance ultimately benefits the U.S. national interest better than an indefinite, bloody and expensive war. Or you can argue that the counterinsurgents are wrong, and while civilian casualties are to be avoided in general, they don’t have strategic implications. But you can’t simply argue that a U.S. withdrawal comes with a pony for every Afghan citizen since that overlooks the United Nations' documented increase in the proportion of civilian casualties for which the Taliban are responsible.

I have a few quibbles with this argument. One, as our friend Andrew Exum recently pointed out, withdrawal from Afghanistan isn't really on the table as an alternative to the current policy so this argument just isn't really relevant to this debate. (Although to those who are urging immediate withdrawal Spencer's point is one that pokes a hole in the notion that Afghanistan will be better off if we just leave.)

Second, Taliban atrocities will certainly continue if say, we depart southern and eastern Afghanistan, but I would imagine that they would not continue at the same pace. As the UN report I flagged the other day mentions violence in eastern and southern Afghanistan has jumped because of our presence there. If there is a reduced US and ANSF footprint in these areas it only stands to reason that you will see fewer assassinations, fewer reprisal killings, fewer roadside bombs etc. Proponents of the current COIN strategy have to come to grips with the fact that just as in Iraq, our destabilizing presence leads to more, not less violence even if the number of civilians being killed by US arms decreases (which it isn't!). Spencer is right that the Taliban are responsible for an increase in civilian casualties . . . but NATO has something to do with that.

Of course, the rejoinder to this argument is that if we leave, the people living in southern and eastern Afghanistan will be even worse off since they are going to suffer under Taliban rule. This brings us to the last point.

All of this is true, but ultimately this isn't the concern of the United States. I don't mean that to sound flippant or to argue that US shouldn't care - I say it, because in the end if the US can get out of Afghanistan with its interests protected and with a reasonably stable government in Kabul that is in little danger of falling we'll quite easily sell out those civilians in eastern and southern Afghanistan (and it's not as if staying will necessarily make their situation any better). 

The inherent problem with our stated focus on Afghans civilians is that this is simply a means to an end - namely weakening the Taliban and protecting US interests. If we can meet those goals without protecting civilians we will and ultimately we're simply not going to stay in Afghanistan to ensure that Afghan civilians have their rights protected from the Taliban. Our focus on Afghan civilians only goes so far as it dovetails with US interests. Beyond that . . . not so much.

This whole focus on what we can "provide" for the Afghan people is a giant shell game and one gets the sense that the Afghan people are smart enough to realize it themselves. Ultimately, we are fighting this war for reasons that narrowly have to do with protecting US interests - and we should be honest about it. And if we really want to help Afghan civilians we should perhaps shift our focus to those parts of the country where we can really do some good and where our efforts will likely be sustainable.

Comments

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Good post. It's nice to see someone at the very least being honest about motivations. I get incredibly tired of the SELF delusion that seems to have taken place in many quarters of our "national security elite." We did NOT invade Afghanistan for anything other than SELF INTEREST. We wanted to kill/capture those who planned and aided the 9/11 attacks. Period. And at the beginning of our invasion, it seemed everyone was being reasonably blunt that our purpose there wasn't to save Afghan civilians or export Democracy. Now.... well, it seems now that our goalposts have been moved back exponentially everyone is digging for purported reasons that have absolutely NOTHING to do with why we we're there in the first place (and why we will likely continue to be there). The same sort of shell game happened with Iraq after supporters of the war (Which, I wont lie, I was initially a supporter myself) ran out of reasons that involved SELF INTEREST. After those stated "reasons" crumbled, it devolved into the usual "We're there to fight tyranny and save Iraqis from Saddam." Bull. Even then, as with Afghanistan now, civilians were pawns meant to be used to further our goals.

So the question is why do so many national security commentators and experts delude THEMSELVES into believing this has any humanitarian nature involved? I refuse to believe they're simply being manipulative in hopes of gaining support for other unstated goals, that grants them (or anyone for that) far too much self awareness and cunning. Is this simply because we as humans are hardwired to believe ourselves noble and our intentions wholesome? I tend to think so. The psychology of it fascinates me to say the least.

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While I think it is not a bad idea to fight the Taliban and prevent terrorism in the U.S. it is important to note that having goals that are realistic is the best policy in this situation. Although we hope for a "democracy with transparency" it will most likely be at best a South Asian style democracy and at worst a failed state African democracy. I posted on my blog an interesting point about this. Check it out: http://wwwstangblog.blogspot.com/2010/05/thailand-future-of-afghanistan-and-iraq.html

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