Drones: The Least Bad Option Posted by Michael Cohen

A couple of weeks ago, Christina Fair, who is one of the smartest and most interesting voices on Af/Pak issues, made a rather incendiary claim on MSNBC - that US drones operating in Pakistan don't kill civilians. Scahill and Spencer were up in arms and on the surface their anger seemed fairly legitimate. How could anyone argue that drones were not killing civilians, what with the repeated media references in Pakistan to such deaths?

Christina insisted to me that her assertion was correct and today in Foreign Policy she makes the public claim:

The only publicly available civilian casualty figures for drone strikes in Pakistan come from their targets: the Pakistani Taliban, which report the alleged numbers to the Pakistani press, which dutifully publishes the fiction. No one has independently verified the Taliban's reports -- journalists cannot travel to FATA to confirm the deaths, and the CIA will not even acknowledge the drone program exists, much less discuss its results. But high-level Pakistani officials have conceded to me that very few civilians have been killed by drones and their innocence is often debatable. U.S. officials who are knowledgeable of the program report similar findings. In fact, since January 1 there has not been one confirmed civilian casualty from drone strikes in FATA.

Fair's argument dovetails with another recent report by Brian Glyn Williams that draws similar conclusions:

According to our database, as of 1 April 2010, there have been a total of 127 confirmed CIA drone strikes in Pakistan, killing a total of 1,247 people. Of those killed only 44 (or 3.53%) could be confirmed as civilians, while 963 (or 77.23%) were reported to be “militants” or “suspected militants.”

This is some pretty interesting research and Fair draws some important additional conclusions: that we really don't know how the drone strikes are perceived in Pakistan and in some cases locals may prefer the US's stealthy approach to the Pakistani military's overly aggressive use of artillery and scorched earth polices against Pakistan Taliban in Waziristan.

Indeed this seems to undercut the most pervasive anti-drone argument - that the perception of civilian casualties in Pakistan is creating a host of so-called "accidental guerrillas" and a more radicalized local population. In fact, as Fair notes the reality is far more complicated.

The bottom line here is that there is no silver bullet to dealing with jihadist terror groups that operate in the wilds of Pakistan. If you think about the various policy courses that the US has adopted - encouraging the Pakistanis to deal with the issue militarily, escalate in Afghanistan to prevent an AQ safe haven from emerging . . . the drone war looks a lot better.

Ideally we would live in a world where the Pakistanis don't aid, abet and tolerate terror groups on their soil, but of course we don't. In the meantime, the drone war seems the most logical course for not only fighting terrorism, but also providing a possible path to de-escalation in Afghanistan.

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[Don Bacon]

I agree, Michael, drones should be used everywhere Al Qaeda is located.

The countries where Al Qaeda maintains a presence reportedly include Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Jordan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Syria, Xinjiang in China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Mindanao in the Philippines, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, Dagestan, Jammu and Kashmri, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Azerbaijan, Eritrea, Uganda, Ethiopia, as also in parts of the West Bank and Gaza.

I say go for it, and since we call all civilians killed by drones "suspected militants" there's no down side. Heck, Michael, from some of your statements I'm not sure about you!

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The countries where Al Qaeda maintains a presence reportedly include Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Jordan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Syria, Xinjiang in China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Mindanao in the Philippines, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, Dagestan, Jammu and Kashmri, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Azerbaijan, Eritrea, Uganda, Ethiopia, as also in parts of the West Bank and Gaza.

I say go for it -- numbers one through three in all countries. Heck, four and five also while we're at it. Also their family members. The US had a policy of 29 to one in Iraq, before requesting approval from higher authority. Twenty-nine collateral to one enemy was acceptable. Of course the 29 were automatically "suspected militants", even if they were infants, which they often were.

Marc Garlasco, who once worked on targeting at the Pentagon (and recently resigned from Human Rights Watch!), explained the calculus of civilian deaths in high value targeting to the television news program 60 Minutes this way, "Our number was 30. So, for example, Saddam Hussein. If you're gonna kill up to 29 people in a strike against Saddam Hussein, that's not a problem. But once you hit that number 30, we actually had to go to either President Bush, or Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld." (I wonder if they fudged the numbers. Nah.)

What's the policy now?

So the US has blowback. As Pat Buchanan said: "They're over here because we're over there."

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No doubt Drone strikes will remain an important tool to disrupt al Qaeda and Taliban operations and to kill the leaders of these organizations,but along with that Pakistani civilians will also be killed.

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Also you can't get any intelligence from a dead man, and the US claims to have gotten valuable intelligence from smart interrogation techniques.

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WASHINGTON - Some CIA officers involved in the agency's drone strikes programme in Pakistan and elsewhere are privately expressing their opposition to the programme within the agency, because it is helping al Qaeda and its allies recruit, according to a retired military officer in contact with them.

"Some of the CIA operators are concerned that, because of its blowback effect, it is doing more harm than good," said Jeffrey Addicott, former legal adviser to U.S. Special Forces and director of the Centre for Terrorism Law at St Mary's University in San Antonio, Texas, in an interview with IPS.

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This is some pretty interesting research and Fair draws some important additional conclusions: that we really don't know how the drone strikes are perceived in Pakistan and in some cases locals may prefer the US's stealthy approach to the Pakistani military's overly aggressive use of artillery and scorched earth polices against Pakistan Taliban in Waziristan.
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We are not at war with any country, therefore it is illegal to kill any civilians. One presumes that while the data on civilian deaths is disputed, it is acceptable to debate the morality of targeted assassination. It doesn't matter if the Pakistani's chose to accept these Taliban or not, the US does not have the right to bomb whoever the hell they feel like simply because they suspect there may be militias in a territory.

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The term, suspected militant, seems rather vague.

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Michael, I agree with you and Christina that the reports of Pak civilian deaths are dubious, and that the drone strike is a great weapon in the struggle against "the struggle," as it were. I even think if the terrorists come to hate them enough, we may be able to arrange a tactical arrangement whereby we don't drone-strike them and they don't suicide-bomb us...maybe.

Still, the nature of a drone strike IS problematic, and there's no guarantee that we've NEVER hit a civilian. I mean, the legal and moral problems associated with what are essentially remote, video-game style assassinations still remain, even if in practice we've yet to cross some lines.

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