What If We're Wrong? Posted by Michael Cohen

Over the weekend, Karen DeYoung offered some sobering thoughts on the upcoming US offensive in Kandahar:

The Obama administration's campaign to drive the Taliban out of Afghanistan's second-largest city is a go-for-broke move that even its authors are unsure will succeed.

The bet is that the Kandahar operation, backed by thousands of U.S. troops and billions of dollars, will break the mystique and morale of the insurgents, turn the tide of the war and validate the administration's Afghanistan strategy.

There is no Plan B.

To flesh this out more, the US military plan seems to be predicated on the notion that the US will bloody the Taliban, seize some level of control in Kandahar province and push the Taliban closer to negotiations.

But what if this doesn't happen? What if the Taliban undertake a guerrilla campaign against NATO forces and/or a wave of terror attacks those who collaborate with the US government - as we are seeing today? What if they decide to bide their time and wait out US military operations? What if local Afghans blame NATO and the US for the violence that will be sure to accompany our military operations there? What if the strengthening of corrupt, government officials like Walid Karzai turns more of the population against the government? And above all, what if escalation in Kandahar makes the Taliban not more inclined to negotiate with the US, but less? What if military operations actually slow the move toward political reconciliation?

If Karen DeYoung's reporting is to be believed it t very much appears that we haven't asked ourselves these questions or if we have, answered them satisfactorily.

It's instructive and somewhat eerie that the US made many of the same calculations in 1965 in Vietnam. Then American leaders decided that the use of air power against North Vietnam would push Hanoi toward negotiations; they would bend toward our will and compromise, or so the argument went. But US policymakers greatly underestimated the tenacity of the enemy; they came to believe that the North Vietnamese would feel "a threshold of pain" before the US did. Of course, those assumptions were tragically wrong.

The failure of US airstrikes to affect the behavior of the North Vietnamese laid the path toward the eventual entry of US ground troops . . . and then more troops . . . and more troops until the US has been sucked into a quagmire of its own making.

Now of course Afghanistan is not Vietnam. But all too often underestimating our enemy; assuming they will respond a certain way to US actions - and not preparing for the possibility that they won't - begets more not less escalation.

If we're wrong in Kandahar and it doesn't push the Taliban toward negotiation; what do we do next? Do we stay and go through the long process of stabilizing and pacifying the city? Do we leave with the job undone?

Perhaps before the US military undertakes its biggest operation of the war in Afghanistan, the civilian leadership could demand answers to these questions. Because, if there is no plan B for Kandahar, there should be no Plan A either.

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