The Cold Water in Face Award Posted by David Shorr

...goes to Les Gelb, for pointing out how US nonproliferation priorities have little resonance with the rest of the world. According to his reading of Brazil and Turkey's recent mediation initiative, "the good old days of most nations automatically supporting U.S. non-proliferation efforts is over." Gelb notes that other countries don't understand why all the fuss about Iran and not about de facto nuclear weapons states like India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. As this kind of skepticism grows, it's bound to erode America's influence as the nonproliferation agenda-setter.

If this is a clash of worldviews, it could lead to much deeper differences of approach to nuclear proliferation. Gelb didn't look into that abyss, saying a sense of common interests can be bolstered by welcoming a role for new powers like Brazil and Turkey and placing the emphasis on intrusive inspections (clearly central to the ultimate resolution of the issue). The United States is already fighting a diplomatic battle with other nations' belief that an agreement with Iran can be reached without applying any pressure. But what if they really don't care whether Iran obtains a virtual weapons capability?

As Gelb points out, the root issue is the irrationality and inequity of not having a single standard. From the US perspective, I count eight different standards in dealing with the official weapons states, "de factos," and Iran. (France and the UK are treated the same, but more on that below.) Many readers know my view on a pressure-free approach to Iran (won't work). Today I'd like to offer a view on the sequencing of the nonproliferation agenda that, while unsatisfying to many, hopefully at least seems reasonable.

Beginning with the elephant in the room, a why-deal-with-Iran-until-you've-dealt-with-Israel approach obvioulsy would throw the whole thing off the rails -- but I do see the importance of plotting a path toward dealing with the Israeli nuclear arsenal. So, a two key rules of thumb:

1. It's easier to keep a country from becoming a nuclear weapon state than to get it to disarm; this is the main argument for prioritizing Iran. Like it or not, the Indian, Pakistani, and Israeli arsenals have become facts on the ground, making disarmament extremely hard to pursue as a near-term agenda. North Korea lies in between -- harder than Iran, not as hard as the other "de factos."
2. The five traditional nuclear powers have to disarm before the newer members of the club. Those who first fired n-weapons early in the Cold War should go first in cutting to minimum levels. For one thing, unlike India, Israel, and Pakistan, they've borne this responsibility as parties to the NPT for 40 years.

Therefore, the threshold moment in nonproliferation will be when constraints are in place for the nuclear forces of the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK. At that point, the focus automatically shifts to India, Israel, and Pakistan (I'm going to cling to hope that the DPRK's been disarmed in the meantime). None of these can be taken out of the context of their regional security situations, but in the logic of the global nonproliferation norm, they would come under new pressure regardless of whether they're parties to the NPT. The medium-term strategic aim should thus be to pull China, Britain, and France into nuclear reductions as quickly as we can. Does there need to be another round of US-Russia bilateral cuts before that? I don't know. If so, that's all the more reason to get ready for negotiations on the next agreement after New START.

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Thanks. Just one point I want to stress. The question of a scenario in which Iran would launch a nuclear attack is not the only issue associated with their n-weapons capability. It poses problems even if we recognize the unlikelihood of Iran dropping the bomb.

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