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May 22, 2010

Rounding Out The Feaver "Yes, but" Theory of Obama Foreign Policy
Posted by David Shorr

Over at Shadow Government, Peter Feaver picks up on a refrain of Obama foreign policy that for him reveals the underlying strategy:

I call it the "yes, but" strategic logic because what Obama has sought to do is systematically neutralize (in a rhetorical debating sense of the term) the laundry list of complaints about US foreign policy that other countries use as excuses whenever we would push them to help us on pressing American priorities like Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and so on.

Feaver is definitely onto something, but I see this as an aspect of the strategy rather than its overarching logic. Unquestionably this pattern of undermining the standard criticisms of the US has been a steady one. In his September 2009 speech to the UN General Assembly, President Obama spoke explicitly about "an almost reflexive anti-Americanism, which too often has served as an excuse for collective inaction." 

While the policy indeed aims to shift the onus from the United States onto others, the dynamic isn't mainly the battle to prevail in arguments. As diligently as the administration marshals its strongest possible debating points -- and discredits the counterpoints -- I don't think they view success as a matter of persuading the opponent or proving the case. Rather, the name of the game is to build expectations to the point that the leaders of the nation(s) in question feel compelled to comply. The strategic value of the moral high ground is that it's a strong position from which to exert such pressure.

Feaver supports his theory by showing how it helps explain choices of priorities that are otherwise puzzling. The administration is picking the policy battles that help defuse the most common critiques of US foreign policy -- arming itself with strong "yes, but" retorts. The atrocities of the Sudanese government, Feaver argues (somewhat persuasively), don't meet that test of being an issue where the US is subject to international expectations.

I'd offer a different theory of prioritization. I see Obama focusing on high-stakes challenges that are consequential for future health of the international system. This strategy pushes attention toward: global economic recovery, climate change, erosion of the nuclear taboo, a peaceful Asia, and terror networks. In other words, there are items on the international agenda that have prima facie urgency; America's strategic message to the rest of the world is "let's get together and solve some of these problems."

My strategic logic theory might help explain another perceived quandary regarding Obama's policy: the supposed slighting of the United States' friends and allies. If the primary driver and focus of your foreign policy is the challenges and problems, maybe that's a strategically different lens than attending to your friendships. Maybe this approach treats relationships as overly instrumental rather than valuable in themselves. Of course any administration will say that it is working to keep relationships with allies strong, which is undeniably important. I just raise the question whether a hard-driving, problem solving-focused policy is bound to involve the trade-offs I'm describing. And is that really a wrong choice?

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