Lesson from Kentucky and Pennsylvania: Progressives Turnout, Conservatives Divided Posted by Ryan Keenan

Pennsylvania: Democrats Vote Against Arlen Specter…Again! Not Obama

The storyline here is that Specter, the incumbent and party establishment choice, lost to the insurgent Sestak. This is only partially true. Yes, he did have backing from the White House as well the Governor and was a sitting Senator. But he was not an incumbent to the Pennsylvania Democratic Party electorate. Specter has never won a state-wide DEMOCRATIC primary. He is an incumbent to the general election electorate not the Democratic primary electorate. Considering PA has closed primaries this is significant. The results of this election were a result of rank and file Democrats outside of Philadelphia doing what they have done for thirty years, vote against Arlen Specter, not against the administration. Looking at the results more closely, Specter only won two counties outside of Philadelphia (Lackawanna and Dauphin) narrowly and Sestak performed well in Allegheny county (Pittsburgh) and Bucks and Montgomery (the Philadelphia suburbs.)  

Another lesson from this race is that candidates matter. With so much emphasis being placed on national narratives and the political climate, the ability of a candidate to execute a campaign strategy was critical in this primary. Specter made significant tactical mistakes. He went unnecessarily negative too soon and too harsh. He aired this add in mid April attacking Sestak’s military record right around the time he lost his double digit lead. This attack did two things; it gave Sestak name recognition and highlighted Sestak’s biggest strength, his military service.  In a state where many rank and file democrats are blue collar-pro military Jack Murtha types, attacking Sestak’s military record swift boat style made little sense. Sestak on the other hand performed well. In this ad, he successfully tied Specter to Bush, highlighted his switching parties for political expediency and more subtly mentioned jobs.

As far as intensity is concerned, the Specter-Sestak battle has engaged the PA Democratic state party base, while Pat Toomey’s assured nomination did little to spark Republican turnout. Specter-Sestak brought out 1,045,520 voters on a rainy day vs. the 818,604 by Toomey and little known Luksik. This was the same in the gubernatorial race where Onorato and his competitors attracted 1,018,845 vs. 850,995 for Corbett vs. Rohrer. That is almost 227,000 and 167,000 more people who turned out to vote for a Democrat than a Republican for Senator and Governor respectively. This is important from a GOTV perspective because it means these voters are already aware of the race, familiar with their candidate, and know where their precinct polling places are located.

Kentucky: Democrats Turnout, Republicans Divided.  

The storyline on the Kentucky primary is that Rand Paul, Tea Party hero, ignited the angry anti-establishment conservative base that turned out in droves….not so much. The less sexy Democratic primary between Mongiardo and Conway brought 520,412 to the polls vs. the 351,927 by the hyped Paul/Grayson battle. While conservative pundits interpret this as a warning to the administration, over 168,000 more Kentuckians voted for a Democrat than a Republican on Tuesday night.

Paul’s victory does highlight some backlash against the Republican establishment, particularly within the Kentucky Republican party. Even more than that, however, it highlights significant ideological questions about Rand Paul, the Tea Party Movement and the conservative base, specifically on national security. Paul’s initial validation as in insurgent candidate was because of his father, Ron Paul a hero to Libertarians and Libertarian leaning Republicans nation-wide. This is the same Ron Paul who opposed the Iraq invasion and supported the Obama Administration’s decision to not intervene in the Iranian elections.

"I have admired President Obama's cautious approach to the situation in Iran and I would have preferred that we in the House had acted similarly."

This is a direct contradiction to the nonconservative Dick Cheney wing of the conservative base that was the primary force pushing us into Iraq and is the loudest proponent for invading Iran. Cheney endorsed Grayson. Cheney has also been the most vocal defender of Bush interrogation policies where the senior Paul has been a vocal advocate for closing Guantanamo and critic of Bush detainee policy. 

Cheney is a natural nemesis to the senior Paul, but what about the junior Paul? Most of Rand Paul’s biggest national supporters like Sarah Palin are in Cheney’s camp on these issues. The Tea Party has never been clear on any national security issue; its website doesn’t address them at all.

Rand Paul now has to make the difficult decision of which conservative base to please, his father’s cult like libertarian following or the nonconservative Dick Cheney crowd. Either way, he risks alienating key constituents in the Republican Party that he needs in November. Officially he is Libertarian-Lite. His website lists him as for the war in Afghanistan, against the war in Iraq, for defending the constitution, but also in favor of military tribunals at Guantanamo. This hedge, however, will be difficult to sell to November’s electorate because of its inconsistent logic. His stance on the Detainee issue directly not only contradicts Libertarian principles but also his own positions from only a year ago:

Rand Paul “couldn’t agree more” with those who believe Guantanamo has “significantly damaged the reputation of the United States” and who want to “see it shut down.”(Rand Paul official campaign website post, posted by the site Administrator, 5/25/09)

"It's unclear whether these people are guilty or not guilty... So I really think deportation or sending them back to their country of origin might be the best way to go. And none of its fair, because some of them have been held years and years without trial... and you deport them to the countries where they were captured..." on the Alex Jones You Tube show Alex, 5/21/09

This flip is an obvious concession to the Cheney/Palin crowd, but it directly contradicts his anti-government base. How can giving the government the authority to detainee someone indefinitely be consistent with any “movement” that wants to reduce the size and power of government? This is a serious question not only for Rand Paul, but also for the Tea Party and the Republican Party.

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[mermerci]

[...] Are Magazines Doomed, Too?A post from BuzzMachine about the future of magazine publishing. [...]

[pimapenci]

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[pleksi]

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[mantolama]

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[Oakley Sunglasses]

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[SBOBET]

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SBOBET

[seo optimizasyon]

'Derailed' por el bien de una media luna o rab

[halı yıkama maltepe]

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[toyota çıkma parça]

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