Kandahar Cluster**** Watch - The Harbingers of Doom Version Posted by Michael Cohen

I cannot recommend enough Karen DeYoung's article in the Washington Post today about the utterly delusional nature of the upcoming NATO offensive in Kandahar. But as DeYoung points out - hidden under the effort to remain an "objective" reporter - virtually every assumption of US leaders regarding the Kandahar offensive appears to be either dubious or simply wrong.

For example:

U.S. civilian officials are simultaneously trying to wrest control from local power brokers and to correct imbalances that favor one tribal group. They plan to set up 10 administrative districts, each with a representative council and money to spend.

And yet, Kandahar's corrupt, drug-dealing governor, Walid Karzai remains in power even after repeated entreaties to his brother Hamid to get rid of him. If the US wants to wrest control from local power brokers, but isn't willing to replace the person perhaps most responsible for the city's endemic corruption and the Afghan people's lack of confidence in the Kabul government - how exactly is that going to work?

Indeed, according to DeYoung by the Pentagon's own analysis the more aid we pump into Kandahar the more we strengthen the same corrupt individuals and power brokers whose behavior is feeding the insurgency.

Then there is the lack of metrics underpinning the US effort:

Success has been only vaguely defined, and progress will be monitored through what the military calls "atmospherics reporting," including public opinion polls and levels of commerce in the streets. A senior military official said the central question, which the administration will pose and answer for itself, is: "Are we moving toward a solution in Kandahar that the people support?"

Is "atmospherics reporting" a euphemism for whatever the military can spin in order to claim they are making "progress?" In fact, if the US is so focused on public opinion polling in Kandahar perhaps they could pay more attention to the fact that the army's own polling indicates 94% of Kandaharis don't want the US to intervene in Kandahar. But the larger reality is that by December (when a review of the current Afghan policy is expected) it will be next impossible to get a clear sense of whether Kandahar is "moving toward a solution that the people support." This is an effort that will take not months, but years. That the administration has made the metrics for success so vague leaves them deeply susceptible to the same sort of goalpost shifting that went on around the Iraqi surge when a decline in civilian casualties became the key metric even though it wasn't one of the original benchmarks for success.

But there's more:

The offensive requires Afghan police to demonstrate, arguably for the first time, competence and integrity. It assumes that Americans, both military and civilian, can sort through complex tribal politics to ensure that power and funding go to the right people, and that Kandahar's chieftains will relinquish some control and support U.S. aims.

What possible reason is there to believe that any of this will happen . . . or that it will happen by December? Consider what DeYoung has to say about the Afghan police and judicial system:

Statistics in the analysis are grim. Of 784 uniformed police in Kandahar city and the surrounding area, only 25 percent to 30 percent have been trained, although new forces are scheduled to arrive for the offensive. Of 87 slots for local judges, nine are filled. Saraposa prison, the main detention facility in Kandahar, is overpopulated and is considered less than secure, and the offensive is expected to produce "far more" prisoners than it can handle.

And then consider what the Pentagon's own report on the situation in Afghanistan had to say about the judicial system there:

In order for the ANSF to successfully transition to security lead, there is a requirement for a minimum acceptable rule of law capacity (i.e., governance, courts, judges, prosecutors, and correctional capacity) to support the security effort.  Defining sufficient rule of law capability, and the resources required to achieve it, is outside the scope of this report but is being addressed by the interagency and international community.  Without the necessary supporting rule of law structures, the ANP will become ineffective over time.  No matter how many police we train or how well we partner with them, without sufficient rule of law and governance, transition will fail.  

By the Pentagon's own analysis the near term transition to Afghan control is unlikely to succeed.

And what if it doesn't succeed? How does the US just pull out after spending so much time and resources to pacify Kandahar? Here in lies perhaps the greatest folly with intervening in Kandahar; if we're even a tiny bit successful in the near-term it will actually increase the pressure to stay in order to not squander any gains that are made and if we're not successful then it will be even harder to leave the place in worse shape then we found it. Short of magical success, the US is likely on the hook in Kandahar for a very long time to come - and if we leave there will be no reason for any Afghan to trust our word again.

In short, Kandahar is shaping not to be the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning - and the starting point for a longer, more intractable mission of pacification and stabilization in southern Afghanistan. A few weeks ago, upon publication of the Pentagon's April report, I asked these questions:

"Why are we continuing on a mission - that by the military's own analysis - is almost certainly out of the scope of our capabilities and the capabilities of our host country partner? And perhaps more directly, why aren't our civilian policymakers asking this question of the uniformed military?"

They are as germane now as they were then; but perhaps the even better question is why aren't my progressive brethren demanding answers to these queries? Why are we looking the other way when the evidence is steadily mounting that the Administration is stumbling into a political and military quagmire in Afghanistan - a quagmire that can be prevented.

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"In short, Kandahar is shaping not to be the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning - and the starting point for a longer, more intractable mission of pacification and stabilization in southern Afghanistan."

I'm predicting the same outcome. This all sounds bad now, but it'll be a lot worse come August and beyond.

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