Egypt: "There is a Moment of Real Change This Time" Posted by Shadi Hamid

I'm in Cairo now on a research trip, meeting with members of the opposition, trying to get a sense of how much Mohamed El Baradei's emergence has changed the political arena. I will be tweeting on my visit, so please feel free to follow me here. It clearly has. Meanwhile, Islamists are in a state of semi-crisis (as I suppose is usual) and are playing it cautious, although, as one prominent Brotherhood member told me, Brotherhood leaders are "optimistic" about Baradei. Everyone, Baradei included, is keeping their options open.

I had a great conversation yesterday with Islamist thinker and activist (and former Brotherhood member) Ibrahim El Houdaiby. He emphasized how fluid the political situation was. It is "more or less certain," he said, "that [President Mubarak] will not run" again in upcoming presidential elections. He is "apparently in very bad shape." The regime, which has always portrayed itself as united, has increasingly become an unwieldy alliance of disparate actors, many of whom have competing interests and priorities. As Ibrahim put it, "there is no such thing as 'the regime'." It is not a unitary actor and when things get messy, it may not act as one. 

In an interesting indication of this fluidity, Mona el Shazly had Brotherhood General Guide Mohamed Badie on her popular show Al Ashira Masa'an. Generally, the national media has been off limits to the organization. Meanwhile, the Brotherhood has been making official visits to the major parties, including the Wafd, and its "flirtation" with Baradei has already been discussed at length. Ibrahim also pointed out that Abdel Monem Said Aly, a major pro-regime figure, wrote two columns somewhat sympathetic to Baradei.

"There is a moment of real change this time," Ibrahim told me. Perhaps we're entering another 2005 moment? This time, however, America finds itself on the sidelines, and figures much less in Egyptians' discussion of democratic reform than it did 5 years ago.

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