The Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Karzai Contradiction Posted by Michael Cohen

It's back! According to the New York Times, the Obama Administration has concluded that getting tough with Hamid Karzai is no longer the optimal strategy for "winning" in Afghanistan:

After more than a year of watching America’s ability to influence President Hamid Karzai ebb, Obama administration officials now admit privately that the tough-love approach Mr. Obama adopted when he came to power may have been a big mistake.

. . . The turnabout reflects a growing recognition that the more the administration has taken Mr. Karzai to task publicly, the more resistant he has been to American demands. It also shows that no matter how much administration officials try to work around him, they have no choice but to deal with him.

As the kids like to say, "Duh." The whole idea that the Obama Administration was going to find some way to "win" the war in Afghanistan by working around Hamid Karzai is complete folly. Did anyone really believe Karzai wouldn't find some way to throw a monkey wrench in the proceedings if we continued to try and undermine his government?

In a sense, this has to be considered good news - like him or not, Hamid Karzai is the elected leader of Afghanistan and for better or worse, we're stuck with him. The Administration is wise to accept that reality. The problem, however, is that instead of accepting reality we are trying to create our own. Indeed, the issues we are experiencing with Karzai are symptomatic of the increasing incoherence and false assumptions that define the mission in Afghanistan.

We are fighting a counter-insurgency in Afghanistan that is nominally directed toward extending the legitimacy of the Afghan government - and yet it's patently clear that said government has very little legitimacy or credibility, not just in our eyes, but in the eyes of the Afghan people. Eschewing the tough-love approach doesn't change that fundamental problem. Indeed, believing that Karzai can serve as an effective partner for a counter-insurgency mission - even if most evidence suggests otherwise - will likely only exacerbate the problem. Even worse is the belief that by changing how we communicate with Karzai will change his behavior - as opposed to recognizing that our interests in Afghanistan are not the same. In fact, one could argue that our short-term interests of defeating the Taliban run squarely counter to his long-term goal of creating some sense of stability in the country (not to mention perpetuating his own rule). It's indicative of a policy that all for its protestations of focusing on Afghan civilians seems intimately focused on American needs, American capacity and American interests. 

Instead of using Karzai's recalcitrance as an opportunity to reconsider a population centric counter-insurgency strategy that by its very nature relies on the cooperation of the host government . . . the Administration has somehow seemed to convince itself that if we can create a better relationship with Karzai the situation will improve and our interests will be furthered. It's like Diem and 1961 all over again. 

Perhaps someone could ask President Obama if he really meant it when he said these words back at West Point in December:

The days of providing a blank check are over. President Karzai's inauguration speech sent the right message about moving in a new direction. And going forward, we will be clear about what we expect from those who receive our assistance. We will support Afghan Ministries, Governors, and local leaders that combat corruption and deliver for the people. We expect those who are ineffective or corrupt to be held accountable.

What the Karzai situation should tell us is that the assumptions underpinning our policy in Afghanistan are flawed - the approach of the Administration seems to be geared toward fixing the problem with Karzai as opposed to confronting the rot that lies at the core of the mission.

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Everyone on this side of the planet recognizes that Hamid Karzai is a corrupt public official, certainly not the ideal candidate to be the president of a war-torn country. But there are simply no other alternatives to replace him. Karzai is at least a man with a somewhat general following throughout Afghanistan. As far as I know, there isn't another candidate that has that much mass appeal. Even Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's competitor during last summer's elections, wasn't that popular from a political standpoint. He is a member of the Tajik minority...a ethnic grouping that Pashtuns hardly trust.

Without Karzai, Afghanistan would be much worse than it already is. The various insurgent factions working together would most likely set their guns on each other once the collective enemy of Karzai is gone. And with the Taliban being the strongest of these insurgent groups, we would once again have a Taliban-infested government in Afghanistan. Talk about a waste of nine years if that is the case

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No. The Afghans are stuck with Karzai. We are stuck with Obama, for the time being.

We are in Afghanistan deep now like an air-dropped beached whale because of Candidate Obama's 2008 necessity. Obama played the anti-Iraq-Bush-war Obamalove crowd like a fiddle, through a psy ops misdirect that allowed that crowd to continue to diss Bush for being 'off-mission' but sign off for a Bush II operation in Afghanistan.

YOU IDIOTS! Obama is twice the war and four times the debt of Bush. And now look around you Obamalove, to see who you are joined at the hip with -- the Cheneys, the McCains, and the Palins, who want to go even DEEPER down the Afghanistan rat hole.

Watch what happens now. Karzai was a key component of Candidate Obama's 2008 presidential campaign necessity. That purpose was served. Now that president Obama has a 2012 re-election schedule to keep and objectives to meet, Obama won't let Karzai stand in the way.

Karzai will be out of Afghanistan one way or the other before Obama begins to draw down our troops there. Then Obamalove will eagerly swallow the Blame-Bush-now-Blame-Karzai propaganda for us not beginning to draw-down in mid-2011.

"Without Karzai, Afghanistan would be much worse than it already is."

A few million Afghans not yet Taliban, actually living in Afghanistan, disagree with this. They don't want a strong central government in their country to supplant local tribal rule.

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