Question Time for All You Surge Debaters Posted by Patrick Barry

Virtually everyone has weighed in on this issue in form or another, so I thought instead I would ask a question: Had the U.S. refrained from committing to a policy of withdrawal, (as some of the Surge's most vocal proponents were arguing) would Iraq's political situation be better or worse than it is today? 

Comments

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I'm not sure that that's a fair or productive question for debate. We were always committed to withdrawal, from the beginning. That's the meaning of Rumsfeld's failed "light footprint" strategy.

It's a different question altogether whether we should commit to a fixed date for withdrawal. In any case, the SOF agreement we signed under Bush commits us to a fixed date, no matter what we say and no matter whether we think it will lead to increased violence and increased political instability. So, again, this is not really a fair question for debate about the Surge.

You cite McCain's "hundred years" statement as a real proposal from the Surge's "most vocal proponents." This is also unfair since he was obviously engaging in hyperbole. He was exaggerating for rhetorical effect. I'm sure he would agree, though, that we remain in Iraq until the situation is sufficiently stabilized. I can't see any valid objections to this, since to do otherwise would be to jeapordize everything we've achieved so far as well as to make all the sacrifice a dead letter.

With the above as a background, if we had had a fixed date for withdrawal back in 2006-07 (when the Surge was designed and implemented) it would have increased its chances of failure. The Sunni sheiks, for example, would never have agreed to ally themselves with us if they weren't convinced we would be there for the duration. "The duration" is not a fixed date.

Today, the Iraqis themselves have imposed a fixed date on us, whether we like it or not, so this debate is useless.

Aside from that, if you want to speculate about how Iraq's political situation could improve, you have to begin with the fact that, as chaotic as it may be today, it shows a degree of stability and progress that was unimaginable back in 2006--again, this is when the Surge was designed. For example, a secular Shia has won the parliamentary elections with the support of a majority of Sunni voters. Back in 2005, this same secular Shia was humiliated in the elections and the situation went downhill from there until it reached horrific levels of violence.

This is progress, or would be, if people were not so blinded by their Bush hatred (or whatever) that they can't give credit where credit is due. You can argue that whatever progress has happened in Iraq is not due to the Surge but rather to the "Iraqis themselves" or whatever other factors you seize on to justify your opposition to the most important strategic decision in a generation, etc etc. You'd be much better off by just admitting you were wrong back then and "moving on," i.e., learning from your mistake. That's how the real world can be your classroom. If you continue to deny the success of the Surge, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, then you'll just end up digging your hole that much deeper. You'll end up with some radical position that even you, today, would reject. It's a lot better to be a man about it and admit you were wrong. You'll see it's not all that bad. It won't kill you. You'll find that afterwards you'll be all the more willing to do so in the future. This only means that you'll have a more "objective" point of view. You'll be a better analyst.

So, to try and answer your question, I say that the political situation in Iraq today is very positive, considering the problems the Iraqis have and their history and culture. It was never going to be a negotiated transition to democracy like the Acuerdos de Moncloa back in the '70s in Spain. It has to be an Iraqi/Arab transition. This will always be, to us, chaotic and violent because, to us, Iraqis and Arabs are chaotic an violent under normal circumstances. Given the cultural chasm that separates us, I say we've done a very good job of respecting their culture and keeping our hands off the transition. For example, back in '05, Bush was against holding the elections in Janurary because he knew that "his" candidate, Allawi, was bound to lose. He bit the bullet on that one and took the consequences. The consequences were horrific but he ended up pulling it out of the fire in other ways, i.e., the Surge. The election of Allawi's coalition today forms a neat coda to the situation, showing that, yes, in fact, the Surge did succeed.

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