Kandahar Cluster**** Watch - The You Can't Make This Stuff Up Version Posted by Michael Cohen

Over the last few days I've written about the delusional nature of US/NATO efforts around the impending military operations in Kandahar. Today in the Washington Post we have another excellent example of this phenomenon.

U.S military commanders and senior diplomats are locked in a dispute over the best way to bring more electricity to Afghanistan's second largest city, complicating a major campaign to win over the population of Kandahar and push out the Taliban. Convinced that expanding the electricity supply will build popular support for the Afghan government and sap the Taliban's influence, some officers want to spend $200 million over the next few months to buy more generators and millions of gallons of diesel fuel.

Although they acknowledge that the project will be costly and inefficient, they say President Obama's pledge to begin withdrawing troops by July 2011 has increased pressure to demonstrate rapid results in their counterinsurgency efforts, even if it means embracing less-than-ideal solutions to provide basic public services.

U.S. diplomats and reconstruction specialists, who do not face the same looming drawdown, have opposed the military's plan because of concerns that the Afghan government will not be able to afford the fuel to sustain the generators. Mindful of several troubled development programs over the past eight years, they want the United States to focus on initiatives that Afghans can maintain over the long term.

This article is reflective of what seems to be an increasingly significant issue in US efforts in Afghanistan - the desire to bring short-term results that will lead to a more immediate US exit and the long-term need to create some level of stability in the country. Interestingly, Alex Strick van Linschoten, who is one of the few Western journalists working in Kandahar sides with the short-termers.

But as Josh Foust said to me offline,"it took eight years of construction, culminating in a specific and hard-wrought electricity-sharing agreement with Uzbekistan, to supply Kabul. ISAF now wants to supply all of Kandahar in three months." Of course, this is at pace with the military's increasingly delusional public and private declarations of how quickly they can provide governance, security and extend state legitimacy in Southern Afghanistan. Even if the US is able to buy enough diesel fuel and generators to meet the goal of powering Kandahar what exactly is the point if it's not sustainable?

NATO seems to think that Afghans are like an ill-treated girlfriend who can be bought off with roses and chocolates even though there clearly is no engagement ring in their future. The heck with Jay-Z and the Game; maybe NATO planners should be listening to Beyonce!

Yet, this isn't even the most bizarre element of this initiative. This is:

"The top NATO commander in southern Afghanistan, British Maj. Gen. Nick Carter, said increasing power in the city will produce a 'head-turning moment' among residents and will lead them to rally behind the Afghan government."

Truly the mind reels.

Ignoring the fact that being unable to sustain short-term electricity levels might produce a reversal of this "head-turning moment" you do really wonder if NATO commanders believe this stuff. So let's say that maintaining electricity will rally Kandaharis against their Pashtun brethren and in support of the government - how does that actually help NATO? The idea here is that you want to get the population on your side so they will turn against the Taliban - but electricity in itself will hardly encourage Kandaharis to go that route. Instead you need to actually provide people with security and convince them that NATO and the Afghan government is there for the long haul.

But if you're only able to provide power for a few months - and eventually the city goes back to uncertain electricity supplies - how do you possibly convince local Afghans that they should "rally behind" the government? Over the long-term won't it lead to even more diminished trust in the Kabul government? For this effort to succeed it needs to be sustainable - which appears to be the exact opposite approach that the military is advocating. And if it's not sustainable is it even something that the US and NATO should be wasting its time on . . . although of course this is the most obvious critique of the entire COIN effort in Southern Afghanistan.

But that is far from the worst part. At the same time that NATO view increasing power in the city as a "head-turning moment" it is steadfastly ignoring the fact that according to the US Army's own public opinion surveys Kandaharis are almost unanimously opposed to NATO military intervention in their city. Do NATO and US military officials truly believe that providing electricity to Kandahar will serve to outweigh the negative consequences of increased violence that comes from our presence there? How does any increased support for NATO and the Karzai government not get completely reversed if against the wishes of local Afghans we intervene military and kill more civilians?

It really does beg the question: how does the one military organization devise policies that are so inherently contradictory?

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Mr. Cohen raises some critical points that NATO and U.S. forces decision makers should consider. But why would such decisions to improve electrical service in Kandahar have been made in the first place? Regarding Kandahar and whether that part of Afghanistan will recognize the government and international efforts to stabilize that city, region, and whole country, hasty decisions to show progress toward population security, services, and stability will likely result in a more severe "Cluster ****." What Mr. Cohen failed to recognize are the constraints that the Obama admistration's policies toward Afghanistan have foisted on NATO and U.S. forces working the problem; namely, the July 2011 date to reduce forces and efforts applied to the problem. Unless Cohen is uninformed, improving security is occuring or efforts toward that objective will likely be applied at approximatley the same time as electricity service in Kandahar is improved. The ways and means of Counter-insurgency operations and Stability operations are applied simultaneously and not linearally from issue to issue or problem to problem. Perhaps Mr. Cohen could assist the situation of the military given by the administration by using his State Deparment and other political influences to shape a policy which will better fit his idea of the proper way to reduce a insurgency in Afghanistan. His simple criticism of the militaries application of resources won't change a flawed policy.

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