Kandahar Cluster**** Watch Pt. 2 Posted by Michael Cohen

About a year ago when I first started writing about counter-insurgency and Afghanistan I did so because I was struck by the glaring disconnect between the tactical approaches being advocated for in Afghanistan and America's larger strategic interests there. It's not that I am some raging dove, but something about the strategy just didn't seem to make sense to me; and it seemed to reflect an approach driven more by American can-doism rather than a realistic appraisal of US interests and capabilities.  A year later, the problem only seems to be getting worse.

The embrace of a COIN approach in Afghanistan remains the tactical equivalent of sticking a round peg in a square hole. Indeed, even by the doctrinal standards laid out in the flawed FM 3-24, Afghanistan is an incredibly poor choice for waging a COIN fight - what with the combination of almost non-existent host country support, the continued existence of an external safe haven, the lack of enough US troops, a fully-resourced civilian surge and diminishing political will both in the US and among NATO countries. In short, if not for the supposed success of COIN in Iraq - and the fetishization of counter-insurgency doctrine in the US military - would anyone actually come to the conclusion that Afghanistan is a good place to wage a COIN fight? I seriously doubt it.

What we have seen repeatedly is an adherence to COIN, for the sake of COIN. The similarities to the strategic myopia we saw in Vietnam in Iraq are almost too uncomfortable to note.  Military and political decisions are made that seem to ignore any piece of contradictory evidence. And the upcoming offensive in Kandahar is example A of how this delusional process manifests itself on the ground.

Nominally our goal in Southern Afghanistan is not simply to defeat the Taliban, but also to protect the Afghan people and encourage them to side with the government against the insurgents. As I tried to point out yesterday, every available indication suggests that military intervention in Afghanistan will not only likely fail to accomplish these goals, but may actually inflame Afghan public opinion against NATO.

According to the US Army's own public opinion research 94% of Kandaharis oppose the military entry of NATO forces. So why do US military planners insist on sending the lion's share of troops to places where they are clearly not wanted - and ignoring those places where the Taliban are hated and the presence of US troops is not mistrusted? The obvious answer is that this is where the bad guys are. But how does that square with the constant proclamations and tangible ROEs that protecting the population is our number one priority in Afghanistan?

If truly the population is the center of gravity in the COIN fight . . . why are we ignoring the population?  Why are we taking steps that they almost unanimously oppose and that will likely get many of them killed?

Consider for example, the words of Admiral Mullen previewing the fight in Kandahar:

Mullen: Well, I think the strategy that the president laid out — that we are now executing — is reversing the momentum of the Taliban. That’s really the goal this year. I think the operation in Kandahar, which ha[s] commenced, will go a long way towards doing that. So that’s sort of the next big step for me, is Kandahar.

But it’s not just the security aspect. It’s the governance piece. Y’know, I was in a shura with the governor of Kandahar and 60 or 70 elders three or four weeks ago, my last trip. They’re asking for goods and services. They want security, safety. They want their government to deliver for them. I think in the near term, that’s the next big step. 

But as we've seen in Marjah, the US has been unable to provide these services or any sort of "government in a box" to the Afghan people. In fact, this has been a dominant and consistent theme in all of our dealings in Southern Afghanistan - the inability to guarantee security, jobs, good governance etc, particularly in the face of a vicious and effective insurgency. Aside from the platitudes of US military officials what possible evidence is there to believe that this time will be different? What reason is there to believe that the Kabul government and the President's drug-dealing brother are going to execute on these goals? In short, "if not for the supposed success of COIN in Iraq - and the fetishization of counter-insurgency doctrine in the US military - would anyone actually come to the conclusion that Kandahar is a good place to wage a COIN fight?"

But that isn't the point I suppose. Last year, the military decided that we had to do COIN in Afghanistan .  . and so we did COIN. Back in the Fall the President ordered a review of Afghanistan policy and was told by his commanding general that it was COIN or nothing (oh and by the way I need 30,000 more troops) . . and so he got more troops and population centric COIN was embraced by the White House.

Then in February the Marines decided that the fight was in Helmand . . . and so off to Marjah we went. Now, military officials have decided that the next battle is in Kandahar.

And that's that.

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