If Iran Policy Had "Bite" -- Then What Would Happen? Posted by David Shorr

Here is the lede of Kori Schake's slam against current US efforts to keep Iran from getting the bomb:

The Obama administration is talking tough on Iran. Despite allowing the Iranian government to escape sanction for a year of not accepting sugar-coated Western deadlines to abandon their nuclear program, and doing nothing about discovery of another nuclear plant at Qom, Team Obama is suddenly making an awful lot of noise.

Vague premise alert: a more coercive approach would get (have gotten) Iran to change its ways. Since Kori's own preferred course of action is implied rather than explicit, I have to infer her alternative policy. That's okay, though, because one of my core points is that options are constrained. We are squarely in the zone of picking the least bad option here.

Since Schake takes the administration to task for its public line of ruling out a military attack in the short term -- which is merely a pretense, when in reality they've ruled out any military option -- I'll assume she supports possible attacks against Iran as a nearer-rather-than-longer-term option. Problem 1: it's kinda self-serving to base your critique and policy alternative on the claim that current policy is duplicitous.

Problem 2: the threat of force cuts two ways. When coercive diplomacy is well executed, the credible threat of force exerts pressure and lends urgency toward the intended aim. On the other hand, excess saber-rattling and looking like you have an itchy trigger finger can stiffen the resistance of the government in question, particularly a paranoid regime like the leaders in Tehran. Correction, the threat of force cuts three ways, since it also carries the danger of undermining international support. Kori apparently sees no trade-offs associated with bearing down much harder with a near-term threat of force; I disagree.

Quoting the post again:

They are hoping against all evidence that this Iranian government will have a Damascene Conversion. Secretary Clinton told the Financial Times, "what we believe is that if the international community will unify and make this statement, maybe then we would get the Iranians' attention in a way that would lead to the kind of good-faith negotiations that President Obama called for 15 months ago." That's their strategy.

Problem 3: it hardly does us or our objectives any good to paint Iran as absolutely impervious. Sure, it's good bloodsport politics to yell "NAIVE" and ascribe ridiculous ideas to the administration; I get it. Here's the question that it begs, though, do you see any need to pursue a diplomatic solution? Even if the US pursues diplomacy as a show of good faith, then the diplomacy can't be completely disingenuous about the possibility of success -- since that would undercut the good faith part.

Schake's own words, one more time:

All the hubbub has the feel of an orchestrated attempt to look like Washington is doing something when Washington is doing nothing -- they are covering their retreat into a policy of containing a nuclear-armed Iran.

Problem 4: "doing nothing," really? Really!? If working to build a united international front of pressure on Iran doesn't look like much of a strategy to you, that's fine. Chalk up one more disagreement. But if you try to claim the administration isn't doing anything, I have to ask whether you've been paying attention. Go ahead and lay whatever odds you want on success, but by any measure, the current effort has to count as a serious diplomatic full-court press.

Returning then, to my original question: you got a better idea? We're just going to have to bomb, huh? Do you foresee any trade-offs in international support for / hostility toward the United States? Unilateral sanctions? Problem 5: every lesson we have says sanctions have to be multilateral to work. Unlike Gregory Scoblete, I do see a non-nuclear Iran as an international public good, rather than a parochial American interest. And I'm as impatient with the free-riding of other major powers as anyone. If you have doubts about Clinton's strategy, I have my own doubts about yours.

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In the Movie Ben Hur. Ben Hur grew up with Messala. Messala grew up and became a Roman Centurion. Ben Hur grew up to be a Prince of Juda. Then they Clashed. They put each other in various prisons and finally had a chariot race. Both Got Hurt. Then when they watched the crucifixion of Jesus Christ and Heard him say Father Forgive them for they know not what they do. They both became Christian and dropped there swards, and stopped fighting.

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"28There is neither Jew nor Greek, slave nor free, male nor female, for you are all one in Christ Jesus. 29If you belong to Christ, then you are Abraham's seed, and heirs according to the promise." (Bible, New Testament, Galatians 3:28-29)

"The Dispensationalist teaching of prophecy takes Jesus from the center of all prophecy and replaces our blessed Lord with the state of Israel. In Luke 24:44, Jesus says, "All things which are written about Me in the Law of Moses and the Prophets and the Psalms must be fulfilled." Dispensationalists, in effect, have recast this section of God's Word to say, "All things written about the state of Israel in the Law of Moses and the Prophets and the Psalms must be fulfilled." Furthermore as Luther points out, Israel, even in the old Testament, has always referred to those who believed and followed God, not to a particular race of people or to a certain geographical area. The Psalms regularly refer to Israel. When the Psalmist is referring to Israel, he is pointing to those whom God has promised to bless. In there false understanding of scripture, the dispensationalists have misled millions to believe that the Psalms are referring to God blessing the state of Israel, when in fact, the Psalms refer to a blessing God wants to give to all who are worshiping him. In other words, the dispensationalist theology twists and redirects God's promises of blessings from children who are his through Baptism to those they believe are his through geography. Among themselves Dispensationalists would agree that the leading schools teaching their interpretation of the Scriptures would be Moody Bible institute in Chicago Illinois, and Dallas theological Seminary in Texas. One of the founders of Fuller Theological Seminary was also a major promoter of Dispensationalism." (Good News Magazine Prophecy Issue 35, Concordia Mission Society, P.O. box 8555 St Louis MO 63126)

"24These things may be taken figuratively, for the women represent two covenants. One covenant is from Mount Sinai and bears children who are to be slaves: This is Hagar. 25Now Hagar stands for Mount Sinai in Arabia and corresponds to the present city of Jerusalem, because she is in slavery with her children. 26But the Jerusalem that is above is free, and she is our mother." (Bible, New Testament, Galatians 4:24-26)
"I know the slander of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan." (Bible, New Testament, Revelation 2:9)

"9I will make those who are of the synagogue of Satan, who claim to be Jews though they are not, but are liars—I will make them come and fall down at your feet and acknowledge that I have loved you." (Bible, New Testament, Revelation 3:9)

Jesus lived in all sorts of holes. The grave is one of them.
Foxes have holes. (New Testament, Matthew 8:20)
King Herod is a Fox. (New Testament, Luke 13:32)
Jesus brought us out of all of them.

"He forgave us all our sins, 14having canceled the written code, with its regulations, that was against us and that stood opposed to us; he took it away, nailing it to the cross." (Bible, New Testament, Colossians 2:13-14)
"13By calling this covenant "new," he has made the first one obsolete; and what is obsolete and aging will soon disappear." (Bible, New Testament, Hebrews 8:13)
Law with its religion is Satan if You don't have Christ and the Gospel. In fact we are no longer under the law but under Grace. "14For sin shall not be your master, because you are not under law, but under grace." (Romans 6:14) "13Christ redeemed us from the curse of the law by becoming a curse for us, for it is written: "Cursed is everyone who is hung on a tree."" (Bible, New Testament, Galatians 3:13) Law is like a hole. Law is like a Cave. Law is like a Mountain. "12For our struggle is not against flesh and blood" (Bible, New Testament, Ephesians 6:12)

Saul of Tarsus was a member of the Synagogue of Satan. He calls himself the "chief of sinners" But God made him The Apostle Paul who wrote most of the Gospel in the New Testament.

"15For if their rejection is the reconciliation of the world, what will their acceptance be but life from the dead?" (Bible, New Testament,Romans 11:15)

"4Now when a man works, his wages are not credited to him as a gift, but as an obligation. 5However, to the man who does not work but trusts God who justifies the wicked, his faith is credited as righteousness." (Bible, New Testament, Romans 4:4-5)

So we gain the Spirit of God not by observing the law. (New Testament, Galatians, 3)

"16"For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son,[a] that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life." (Bible, New Testament, John 3:16)

Men readily believe what they want to believe. (Caesar)

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