Getting the Story Straight on Afghanistan Posted by Michael Cohen

I really have been meaning to avoid the "tit-for-tatism" of the blogosphere but Jim Arkedis's blog post on my recent piece from Dissent on Afghanistan merits a response. Indeed, he argues my suggestions are a "blueprint for a colossal disaster" there. It's almost as if we haven't been fighting a war there for the past 8 years.To be sure, Jim seemed like a very nice guy when I met him in Dubai last year, but from reading this post one gets the sense he doesn't really have a clear grasp on the situation in Afghanistan.

Take this comment:

Then there’s Cohen’s suggestion to scale back the size of the Afghan army, reasoning that 170,000 poorly trained Afghan soldiers trained by Americans are worse than 90,000 “trained to fight like an Afghan army — not an American proxy force.” Huh? Does anyone have a good example of what a model Afghan army looks like? Why does Cohen believe 90,000 is the right number? And why is Cohen so certain that American training efforts will fall flat for 170,000? And, if we did cut it off 90,000, what would we do with the extra 80,000 recruits to whom we’ve given basic firearms skills but have just lost their paycheck and would now feel betrayed by the U.S.?

One can only wonder if Arkedis understands that the current Afghan Army is currently about 90,000 large. No one is arguing that size of the army should be scaled back or that even 90,000 is the right number (Uh Jim, it's the current number). The argument being made here -  and that many others have made - is that Afghanistan doesn't necessarily need a big army it needs a competent military trained to fight not like an American army, but an Afghan one. As Gilles Dorronsorro has argued building an Afghan armed forces of 170,000 by the end of 2011 is "not remotely realistic."  And while I'm not certain that an effort to almost double the size of the Afghan military in a country with incredibly high illiteracy rates and a poor tradition of professional militaries will fail, I can't imagine what possible reason Arkedis has to believe that it will succeed - except possibly for the fact that Stanley McChrystal said it.

This is not to mention that Jim provides precious little evidence as to why Afghanistan needs a 170,000 man army to combat a Taliban force of 20,000 troops; how Afghanistan's neighbors will feel about such a large force - or even how the poorest country in the world will pay for such an army.

Jim also hates my idea of diminishing the US footprint in the South and East of the country:

Compounding the sense of betrayal that Afghans in those regions might feel (notice a theme?) would be the mistake of offering the Taliban the safe haven they require.

The sense of betrayal? Unless one get all their news from ISAF press releases they would hopefully be aware that there is a sizable portion of the Southern Afghanistan population that a) doesn't like the presence of US troops b) fears NATO troops because they kill civilians c) doesn't want the US to escalate in the region and d) supports the Taliban. This is not to mention the fact that the Taliban already has a safe haven; it's in Pakistan. Been there for a few years; that this might be another impediment to achieving US goals in Afghanistan doesn't seem to factor into the equation.

And there is this:

There is a case to be made that Cohen offers his strategy disingenuously. Cohen thinks that “the original goal of the mission has been achieved; al Qaeda’s safe haven in Afghanistan has been destroyed and its Taliban allies pushed from power.” But if that’s the case, why would we need a new strategy — why not just pull out entirely? And why advocate returning the Taliban to power if we’ve already pushed them out of it?

I don't even know where to start responding to what is basically a cheap shot (and a false one at that). Jim is right that the original mission in Afghanistan has been achieved; but why would Arkedis believe that I think other missions like stabilizing Afghanistan are not important? Indeed, because stability in Afghanistan is, in my view, quite important (more important, in fact, than defeating the Taliban) this is precisely the reason why we shouldn't withdraw precipitously (sorry Robert Greenwald) - and of course why I don't recommend it.

Encouraging stability in Afghanistan is paramount and will (IMHO) be best achieved by setting more realistic and achievable goals that factor in the diminishing political will for the war as well as the lack of support from Pakistan and an incompetent host government. Trying to stabilize Southern and Eastern Afghanistan, with an 18-month timeline, is in my view, not realistic for all the reasons I've gone to the trouble of citing in a 3000-word essay.  But ignore all that "evidence" because Arkedis sees hope:

I also think that the counterinsurgency strategy that Cohen curtly dismisses as “a fad” is a sound plan that’s our best shot at lasting security in Afghanistan. Cohen mistakes U.S. gains in Afghanistan for victory and says we can leave now; I see it as proof that what we’re doing is working and that we should keep at it.

To be sure I see pretty much no US gains and I certainly don't mistake it for victory. But this is a substance-less argument. Jim sees proof our strategy is working and thinks COIN is a sound plan, but provides no actual evidence to back up that view. And what is even more striking about this is that a mere month ago Arkedis was insisting the jury is still out on success in Marja. I'd be curious to know why, in light of articles like this, he suddenly thinks are going swimmingly.

And then finally this coup de grace:

Michael, I’m sorry to be so blunt, but if you’re just sick of the war, it would be better to say it straight out and not offer half-baked, ineffective solutions that would seriously jeopardize American and Afghan security. Competent governance is about making really difficult decisions with the best information available. That’s exactly what this White House did with its careful, deliberative process, and that’s why I’m going to trust them on this one.

Here's what's half-baked; an argument that relies on the fact that the President made a decision and thus we, as progressives, should salute and support.  And this is a rich criticism coming from an organization that had no problem supporting the careful, deliberative process that led to the invasion of Iraq. To be sure, I am quite pleased that the President engaged in a deliberate process in his Afghan review (unlike the one that was done in the Spring of 2009), and it tempers my pessimism (ish). Indeed, I very much trust the President; I have less trust that his orders will be carried out precisely or that the military will interpret those orders in a way that furthers their own agenda.

But, I see my role as a blogger and think tank denizen to not follow my Commander-in-Chief because he has made a decision, but instead offer analysis and recommendations that I believe will improve US foreign policy outcomes - whoever happens to be sitting in the Oval Office. Others may see their role differently.

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[fixkim mantolama sistemi]

shares in this blog is really nice, actually,
I no longer have to follow the internet world

[mermerci]

[...] Are Magazines Doomed, Too?A post from BuzzMachine about the future of magazine publishing. [...]

[pimapenci]

its very nice and amazing project.

[power cord]

Kindness indeed. Sharon, my love and prayers go out to your niece, her doctors and all of you who love her so much.~r

[trouble light]

Oh this is wonderful, wonderful news. It shows that despite all the injustice in the world when it comes to access to medical care, the human heart can sometimes break down those barriers! My prayers to your niece, and wishing lots of good karma will come to these doctors!

[pleksi]

shares in this blog is really nice, actually,
I no longer have to follow the internet world
of blogs to take advantage of this style, I would
like to set up a site, but recently I tried I could
not have a friend View a school he did not know, but
my room will help me more to move forward on cı I’m
jealous already kurmayacağım also ..

[su deposu]

Progress toward Middle East peace has stalled. Resolving these challenges will go a long way toward undercutting the message of

[Generic Drugs Exporter]

Ég held að þú ert rétt þegar þú segir þetta. Límmiðar á maður, hvað Greinar þekkingu sem þú hefur um þetta efni ... vona að sjá meiri vinnu ykkar.

[Oakley Sunglasses]

I really liked your article and I shared with my friends in my facebook account ..

[SBOBET]

This is the most smashing trick I’ve come across ever! Thanks a lot for sharing.

SBOBET

[seo optimizasyon]

'Derailed' por el bien de una media luna o rab

[seo optimizasyon]

'Derailed' por el bien de una media luna o rab

[toyota cikma parca]

All in the name of freedom and sophistry is a beautiful thing. American democracy, the beginning of your own empire.

[cilt bakımı]

we haven't been fighting a war there for the past 8 years.To be sure, Jim seemed like a very nice guy when I met him in Dubai last year, but from reading this post one gets the sense he doesn't really have a clear grasp on the situation in Afghanistan.

[halı yıkama maltepe]

If it’s not happening in both SM and in our routine/daily lives, I can see the Law of Diminishin

[online mba guides blog]

The country do have lot of things we really are not aware of.

[traverten eskitme]

sent to die for you for your interest and companies. All in the name of freedom and sophistry is a beautiful thing. American democracy, the beginning of your own empire.

[กระดาษ]

จำหน่าย กระดาษ คุณภาพสูง ราคาประหยัด
กระดาษ โดย บริษัท เปเปอร์ ไทย คอมเมอร์เชียล จำกัด เป็นผู้จำหน่ายกระดาษคุณภาพทุกประเภท สำหรับธุรกิจการพิมพ์ ธุรกิจกล่อง และธุรกิจอื่นทีมีความต้องการใช้กระดาษ รวมถึงผู้บริโภคที่มีความต้องการกระดาษคุณภาพ เพื่อคุณภาพงาน

บริษัท เปเปอร์ ไทย คอมเมอร์เชียล จำกัด ยึดถือนโยบาย กระดาษคุณภาพ เพื่อคุณภาพงาน ด้วยราคาที่ถูกที่สุดทั้งจากผู้ผลิตในและต่างประเทศ และบริการที่ดีที่สุดเพื่อตอบสนองความต้องการของลูกค้า อันจะเป็นการเพิ่มศักยภาพในการแข่งขันของธุรกิจของลูกค้า

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[Jadeite]

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[sistem]

When you adjust this gradient, start in the middle of the fold shape, hold Shift, and drag out to the bottom right of the fold at a 45 degree angle.

[Facebook Developer]

Today, Afghanistan is so dangerous country due to unrest situation in Afghanistan areas.I really liked your post about Afghanistan

[mermer]

Marble Floor Care marble floors, heavy favorite, but there is a special need for a delicate cleaning and protection.

[veteriner]

There are veterinary clinic Maltepe district of Istanbul. Provide emergency ambulance services to better serve you.