A Kinder/Gentler Update Posted by Michael Cohen

So as NSNer Jake Stokes remarks on his twitter feed there is a new meme that COIN is not kinder, gentler war. Over at TAP, Matt Yglesias has a good piece on the topic (although clearly I should have trademarked "kinder, gentler war") . . . but still Spencer Ackerman is not buying it. He makes two different arguments:

"No one I have ever encountered who has waged, studied or advocated for counterinsurgency has made the case that counterinsurgency is a kinder or gentler method of warfare."

Really? Perhaps no one has ever used the specific term "kinder and gentler" before my WPJ editor did; but here's Mark Bowden calling counter-insurgency doctrine "warm and fuzzy." Or how about FM 3-24, which praises the CORDS initiative and carefully omits its ugly partner - the Phoenix Program. Or John Nagl's Learning to East Soup With a Knife, which argues that Templar's "hearts and minds" strategy turned the tide in Malaya rather than the Briggs Plan, which forcibly relocated 500,000 ethnic Chinese before Templar ever showed up. Or perhaps the best example, Rachel Kleinfeld writing about COIN in Democracy:

For progressives, Petraeus’s victory is our victory. His strategy bucked traditional ideas, lauded by many conservatives, that we could win by outgunning and outmanning the enemy. Instead, Petraeus incorporated insights, such as the importance of legitimacy and privileging civilian life in order to gain hearts and minds, that progressives have been promoting for years.

Spencer should know this piece well - he wrote a blistering critique of it last year.

But the second point merits greater consideration:

During this time, civilian deaths caused by insurgent attacks increased, according to the U.N., by 41 percent, from 1,160 to 1,630. So did the operational tempo of NATO-ISAF forces — think the Helmand River Valley last year — and I can only guess it will increase again this year, owing from Marja and soon Kandahar. What’s significant is that the proportion of civilian casualties caused by U.S. and allied forces are dropping. And that’s because, according to the United Nations, of greater population-protection measures taken first by McKiernan and now by McChrystal.

Now as Derrick Crowe helpfully pointed out in 2010 the numbers of those killed by NATO strikes have jumped - a perhaps not surprising result since we're in the process of sending 30,000 more troops to the region. But in very real sense judging the number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan by how many have died at NATO hands tells us next to nothing.

For example, yesterday 6 people were killed in Kandahar by a suicide bomber. Last month 30 people were killed in a similar attack. And what about the nameless individuals killed in Marjah as a result of our offensive there?  Do we not count those folks because ISAF didn't kill them even though it seems somewhat clear that they are dead because of NATO's presence in the region?  As Spencer notes the number of deaths from anti-government forces has substantially increased - any idea why that might be? (And in all fairness as Spencer quite forthrightly speculates, this may be the better metric to use). As long as civilians are dying in Afghanistan - even if not at our hands - it undermines the population-centric goals of General McChrystal, because it is quite likely that Afghans will at least in some measure blame us for these deaths. It's almost darkly humorous to read people suggest that McChrystal must offer new guidance to the troops in order to stop this bloodletting. Because, as we've seen repeatedly, the very idea that we can have tens of thousands of troops in Southern Afghanistan or perhaps in Baghdad - fighting a guerrilla war - and NOT kill civilians is basically a lie.

This continuing effort to view civilian casualties in a vacuum is akin to saying the surge succeeded in Iraq because civilian deaths went down . . . ignoring the fact that what preceded the surge was full-scale ethnic killing where up to 3,000 Iraqis were being killed each month in Baghdad.

Moreover, just because civilian casualties decrease does not mean that the US is any closer to meeting its goals in Afghanistan. Does a decrease in civilian deaths by NATO lead to Afghans having more confidence in their government? Does it improve governance in places like Kandahar and Helmand? Does it smooth the path toward political reconciliation? Does it lead Pakistan to stop supporting the Afghan Taliban? Does it weaken the morale of the Taliban?  Perhaps along the margins a decrease in civilian casualties can help us to meet some of these goals - but as a whole it doesn't really affect the fundamental challenges that lie at the heart of the mission.

Again it's great that the US and NATO are trying to kill less civilians in Afghanistan. But as for judging the progress of the war - or Afghan attitudes toward the US - it tells us very little.

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A decrease in civilian deaths may not mean we are meeting our goals, but it doesn't mean we aren't, either. You seem to be quite focused on the fact that we will be killing civilians, or at least blamed for some deaths, and claim it "undermines the population-centric goals" of our effort. But you also say a decrease "doesn't really affect the fundamental challenges we face." it seems to me you aren't then addressing what will determine success or failure.

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Well Michael perhaps the point that isn't clear is that I don't really support the pop-centric goals in the first place. My issue is with the idea that we can avoid killing civilians at all - and even if we are able to whether it will actually make success achievable. Change the strategy, not the tactics.

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90th anniversary of the establishment of the Gucci brand

[Adalar evden eve Nakliyat]

I am very happy thank you nice comments. everyone who commented.

[Bayrampaşa evden eve Nakliyat]

Thanks for the comments.

[คอนโด]

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[akdeniz evden eve nakliyat]

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[dc hats]

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I found it here in your blog. I had a great time reading this.

[Bahçe Teli]

Decorative wire mesh, fence, lawn, garden wire types, garden door systems

[Satılık Evler]

Congratulations on a beautiful sharing.

[Bayrak satışı]

Firmamız bayrak alanında Türkiye'nin her yerine satış yaparak hizmetimizi her yere taşımanın gururunu yaşıyoruz. Bayrak imalatında fabrikasyon baskı, empirme baskı, serigraf baskı ve pikolu üretim yaparak bayrak üretiminde öncü firma konumuna gelmiş bulunmaktayız. Müşterimizin memnuniyetini ve şikayetlerini dikkate alarak oluşturduğumuz çalışma sistemi sayesinde alanındaki öncü firmalar içerisine girmiştir. Baskı kalitesi ve malzeme kalitesi sayesinde büyük çapta işler alarak iş ağını genişletmiş bulunmaktayız.