Drawing the Right Lessons From Iraq Posted by Michael Cohen

In my column this week for AOLNews, I argue that on the seventh anniversary of the Iraq War it's critical that policymakers draw the right lessons from that conflict . . . and it's not that they should learn to do counter-insurgency more effectively:

For all the recent good news, nothing could be more dangerous than for policymakers to draw the lesson from the U.S. war in Iraq that the ends somehow justify the means. After well over a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs to the United States, resources and energy diverted from more pressing foreign policy challenges, the reputational and strategic damage to the U.S., and above all the loss of more than 4,300 American lives (as well as the approximately 100,000 Iraqi lives lost and millions others disrupted), the proper lesson from the Iraq war is that the United States never should have chosen to fight it in the first place.

Read the whole thing here.

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I would like to say leaving Iraq peaceful and stable would be great, but it would hardly vindicate invading it in the first place. Only finding evidence of those supposed weapons of mass destruction could do that. We invaded to eliminate those weapons, not to depose a regime if toppling a dictator was our goal, then why not invade North Korea, Iran, Burma, or Zimbabwe?

[Dan Kervick]

I don't want to pick a fight, and I understand that this sort of argument is designed to appeal to that special class of individuals deemed "policymakers", and not - say - ordinary human beings. But what a morally constricted and dismal world these policymakers appear to live in.

What most moves them: Our foreign policy yada-yada challenges, our strategic this and that, our reputational hub and bub, and 4,300 dead Americans.

And yet not so much: 100,000 Iraqi lives consigned to parentheses. 100,000 souls mentioned in a "not to mention" offhand, just this side of apologetically.

Let's view this graphically:

American lives lost

****

Iraqi lives lost

*************************
*************************
*************************
*************************

And then: millions of refugees, untold destruction to property and family fortunes, a poisoned environment, incalculable losses to the cultural riches of the cradle of civilization: that is all compacted under the blandphemism, "disruption".

I don't think even want to know these policymakers. They sound like a sick and satanic lot.

And it seems impossible that these zombie policymakers will ever be moved by the considerations in this piece. Eventually, Iraq will settle down into something approaching normal statehood, and will likely have a better relationship with the United States than its predecessor regime, no doubt bringing us all sorts of strategic razzmatazz and yippee ki-yay. And with those rich policy omelets quivering at the ends of our forks, who will begrudge the 4000 or so American eggs (and the much less valuable Iraqi eggs (the number of which are buried (somewhere deep inside (these here parentheses (100,000))))) that had to be broken to cook them.

[Michael Cohen]

Dan, you're picking a fight with the wrong guy . . . you know I'm on your side. Only reason that number was in parens is because the piece is supposed to be out lessons for policymakers of Iraq. But yes you're right about the greatest toll being paid by Iraqis and again you've read my stuff to know I feel the same.

[Roque Nuevo]

"After well over a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs to the United States, resources and energy diverted from more pressing foreign policy challenges, the reputational and strategic damage to the U.S., and above all the loss of more than 4,300 American lives (as well as the approximately 100,000 Iraqi lives lost and millions others disrupted), the proper lesson from the Iraq war is that the United States never should have chosen to fight it in the first place."

This is a very good example of the historical fallacy. From what you know now, it would have been... etc etc.

Needless to say, this is not a valid argument. You have to situate yourself back in 2002-03 to argue whether we should or should not have invaded. If you do that, then tell me what were the "more pressing foreign policy challenges?"

If you want to say that the lives and resources spent since the invasion were not worth the cost—as you do here—then, to avoid the historical fallacy, you must take a stab at considering what the cost would have been if we hadn't invaded. Would Saddam's regime have held up indefinitely? Would it have simply imploded? What would have been the cost to us and to Iraqis then?

How would the oil-for-food scam have played out if we hadn't invaded? Would it have ended by removing the sanctions regime, as it was designed to by Saddam and friends? By that time, what would have been the cost to us and to the Iraqis once Saddam was in a position to rearm?

As for the WMDs: there were no voices back in 2002-03 saying that Saddam didn't have them. We made the decision based on information we had at the time, not on what we now have.

What will justify the invasion is a stable and democratic Iraq, not futile arguments over WMDs. This will change the balance of power in the region in our favor. That is, in favor of pluralism, democracy, and human rights. This won't bring any of the dead back to life but I say it's worth the cost in the same way that the dead in WWII were worth it. The alternative to war in the 1940s was many more dead plus evil regimes covering most of the Earth.

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