Who is 2025's Jalaluddin Haqqani? Posted by Patrick Barry

At yesterday’s New America event on Al Qaeda Central, Anne Stenersen, an AQ analyst from the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment’s terrorism studies group, gave a fascinating overview focused heavily on the relationship between Al Qaeda and militant groups operating in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

According to Stenersen, at a leadership level, the relationship between Al Qaeda and Taliban is largely superficial.  There is some amount of communication and politically expedient gestures of common cause, but no significant coordination on strategic planning.  At lower, operational levels, it’s a different story.  There, Stenersen finds evidence of strong, if highly localized collaboration in both Pakistan and parts of Afghanistan.  Lest war supporters seize on this as evidence of a convergence between AQ affiliated foreign fighters and Pashtun militants that threaten the U.S., Stenersen’s research indicates that at the moment, these actors are drawn together to fight the western occupation of Afghanistan, not to engage in international terrorism. 

To me, the most interesting factor behind the operational dynamic discussed by Stenersen was historical.  She explained that the interplay between foreign and indigenous fighters is what it is today, in part because of relationships and networks that date back to the Afghan – Soviet War.  For instance, Jalaluddin Haqqani has been plugged in with the Arabs ever since the 1980s, and it is suspected that he continues to draw support from them to this day.  Stenersen also cited instances in which foreign fighters have ‘settled,’ in the region by taking up residence, or by marrying local women, etc.

The endurance of these connections long after the Soviet withdrawal raises questions regarding the long-term impact of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq on extremist activity.  For instance, what will these older networks look like in 10, 15 or 20 years time? Will they evolve? Or will they dissipate?  What new bonds will foreign jihadis have made with one another, in addition to those formed with indigenous militants? Will fighters traveling to Afghanistan remain there, fomenting conflict with whatever government emerges following the U.S. withdrawal?  Perhaps those fighters will not take part in internal conflict at all, and instead rely on local protection while they turn their attention to regional, or even international objectives? Or will these networks become decentralized, as extremists once concentrated in Iraq or Afghanistan return to their home countries?

I’m not sure of the answers to these questions, but the experience covered in Stenersen’s work suggests policymakers will be grappling with the consequences of today’s wars long after our role in the fighting winds down.
 

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