Thoughts on Marjeh: The Jury is Still Out Posted by Michael Cohen

I've been wanting for a few days to say something smart and profound about the US offensive in Marjeh. While generally I struggle with smart and profound, the more difficult problem is what to say. 

As Josh Foust points out, reporting is, how shall we say . . . all over the map. It seems that US troops have encountered sporadic resistance; but even with the focus on not harming civilians, there seem to be several different incidents of civilians being killed. 

Yesterday, 12 were killed when an artillery shell went astray; another 5 killed today in an ISAF airstrike. As I noted the other day, none of this should be surprising - civilians die in war. If the US really didn't want to see civilians harmed (if that was our number one priority) we likely wouldn't be in Helmand in the first place. We've made the decision to place our interests above those of Afghan civilians. There's nothing inherently wrong with that; it's the very nature of war, but at least we should be honest in acknowledging it.

A couple of interesting points that did jump out in some of the coverage. There are some early indications that significant numbers of Taliban slipped across the border to Pakistan, which has always been one of the problems with trying to hold and build in Helmand, in general. Also, it's been very hard to figure out how many Afghan units are actually involved in fighting, but I thought this tweet from Atia Abawi, who is embedded in Marjeh, was interesting:

Afghan soldiers supposed to be a big part of Op Mushtarak. Some are motivated, but most that I've seen like to sleep as the Marines fight.

(And since I'm not obsessed with Twitter, you can follow me here: http://twitter.com/speechboy71) 

But in the end, what happens now won't be terribly revelatory. I think the Guardian did a nice job of summing up the issue:

The withdrawal of Isaf forces from Marjah will be more significant than their insertion. If this operation is designed to be as important to the Afghan surge as the capture of Falluja was for the Iraq campaign, then the objective is not to kill the insurgents so much as make it impossible for them to come back.

This is exactly right. It's way too early to draw any serious conclusions on the effectiveness of the Marjeh offensive. If the US is able to clear the area; if together with Afghan Army and police they are able to provide security and if the Afghan government is able to offer effective governance then maybe this whole thing works. Considering their lack of success in the past in doing effective "hold and build" in the past - not to mention the fact that US troops are on a pretty short leas before withdrawal - I'm a bit skeptical.

But time will tell; and until then the verdict on Marjeh is still pending.

Comments

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. . .and if the Afghan government is able to offer effective governance. . .
You've got to be kidding. The US has given up on the Afghan government, for good reason.

US ambassador Karl Eikenberry has said that President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, who recently got himself re-elected in a sham election, “is not an adequate strategic partner” and “continues to shun responsibility for any sovereign burden.”

General Stanley McChrystal has had to re-orient his objectives to local governance, a deviance from accepted COIN doctrine (FM 3-24) which is based on the US working with and assisting the host national government.

The jury has spoken -- so much for a pending verdict.

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As far as I know in some cases, the Taliban are kidnapping locals and taking them to Marjeh — possibly to punish them for cooperating with the coalition and local authorities — and in other cases they are taking refuge in local neighborhoods, according to some Afghan security officials.

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