Rockets, and rodents, and uranium! Oh, my! Posted by Kelsey Hartigan

During the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Ahmadinejad boasted of Iran’s enrichment program and nuclear capability. From the NY Times:

In the address in Azadi Square in Tehran, Mr. Ahmadinejad relied on familiar nationalist and anti-Western themes, accusing the United States and Europe of trying to hold Iran down and challenging them by saying that Iran had already succeeded in enriching uranium to 20 percent and could do even more.

“We have the capability to enrich uranium more than 20 percent or 80 percent, but we don’t enrich because we don’t need it,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said.

But he added a warning to the West. “Please pay attention and understand that the people of Iran are brave enough that if it wants to build a bomb it will clearly announce it and build it and not be afraid of you,” he said. “When we say we won’t build it that means we won’t.”

The president also repeated his declaration that Iran was a “nuclear state,” adding that it had the capacity to enrich uranium to weapons grade if it chose to.

While events that took place in the days before the rally—launching a rocket filled with little critters, increasing enrichment levels to the HEU threshold, and ticking off the IAEA— might alter the context of Ahmadinejad’s comments, this isn’t the first time Iran has declared itself a “nuclear state.”  Over at ArmsControlWonk, Jeffrey Lewis rattles off at least seven other instances where Iran proclaimed itself a “nuclear power.” If Iran was categorizing itself as a nuclear state in December of 2006, it seems fair to say this is more of a rhetorical ruse aimed at ruffling feathers and scoring domestic political points. As White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, explained, “Iran has made a series of statements that are…based on politics, not on physics.”

Iran’s enrichment program has indeed experienced several setbacks and technological hiccups. David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security, has conducted extensive research on Iran’s program and has detailed the areas where things have not gone according to plan:

Iranian officials have steadfastly maintained that Natanz operates successfully and do not admit to any serious problems at the plant.  However, the relatively low LEU output suggests otherwise. Iran tries to focus on the positive; its officials periodically trumpet the growth in the number of centrifuges installed at the plant…although it reportedly said in August 2009 that it shut down a few cascades for maintenance.  According to a senior official close to the IAEA, the IAEA does not know the reason for the decrease [in the number of centrifuges said to be enriching uranium—a number that has actually been decreasing since June 2009].  Iran did acknowledge some technical problems in its centrifuges to the IAEA, but it did not volunteer why it reduced the numbers said to be enriching. 

Despite these issues, Iran’s announcement that it plans to enrich uranium to 20 percent—the bright line between low-enriched uranium and highly enriched uranium—is serious.  As Albright further explains, Iran’s program is likely to improve:

The problems at the FEP, particularly during the last year, appear to involve complications in deploying thousands of reliable centrifuges.  But despite these problems, it is important to remember that a centrifuge program is not unchanging or static; centrifuge development is intrinsically about improving the separative capacity of the centrifuges.  Iran will continue to improve its enrichment performance at Natanz and elsewhere.

This does not mean that Iran is going to develop a nuclear weapon tomorrow, or in a week, or even in a month.  Iran’s rhetoric is ahead of its actual capabilities. Thus, there is still time for the international community to work toward a multi-pronged solution and strengthen the global nonproliferation regime. As it currently stands, it is politically advantageous for Ahmadinejad to continue to hype Iran’s nuclear program—even if it is stalled by poor performance and reliability. By domestically presenting the nuclear issue in an “us versus them” context as he did during Thursday’s rally, Ahmadinejad can harness any hasty or unilateral action by an outside actor and attempt to unite a divided population and stifle the domestic opposition.  This is precisely the reason why the John Boltons of the world need to shut up.  Military action would only make the situation worse.  That administration should continue working with international partners to coordinate a multinational response.  Smart, targeted sanctions—coupled with further negotiations will not solve the situation overnight, but at this point, it seems to be the best option.

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Finally there is nothing scientifically accurate in claiming that Iran's enrich uranium to 20 percent is a "bright line between low-enriched uranium and highly enriched uranium." HEU is 90%.

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