Iran Back to the Negotiating Table? Posted by Patrick Barry

Major news out of Iran this afternoon.  According to the Associated Press, President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran "will have 'no problem' giving the West its low-enriched uranium and taking it back several months later when it is enriched by 20 percent."  The announcement, if it turns out to have the full backing of the Iranian regime, would be a sizable shift, as it had appeared that Iran had essentially rejected the original IAEA proposal, which would have moved around 70% of Iran's uranium out of the country for off-site enrichment for medical purposes (although there have been signs of persistent back-channel negotiations).

As with most issues pertaining to Iran, there are some significant caveats.  For one, Ahmadinejad's response apparently doesn’t address how the uranium will be shipped out of Iran, a major sticking point for the West.  Under the IAEA proposal, Iran would ship most of its supply of uranium out at once, which would hypothetically set back their nuclear break-out ability by about a year.  Iran's original counter-offer would have shipped out the uranium in batches, which would not have given the international community the same assurances.  The AP story also notes that according to Ahmadinejad, Iran's uranium would only he held for four or five months, and not the full year that "Western officials say it would take for Iran's enriched fuel to be turned into fuel rods for the reactor," further confirming that the timing disagreements have not been resolved.

In addition, it still isn't clear that Ahmadinejad has the full blessing of the rest of the Iranian regime. The Iranian President was said to be supportive of the IAEA proposal before, but as the latter part of the year wore on, Iran's intransigence grew.  Some speculated that this meant that Ahmadinejad had been unable to cobble support from the various factions within the Iranian government, which was also still reeling from the turmoil that unfolded after the June Presidential elections.  This announcement might indicate a new degree of unanimity within the Iranian regime, Ahmadinejad feeling emboldened, or some other dynamic.

So what are the next steps? It's probably too early to tell.  On the one hand, this is a dramatic shift for the simple reason that Iran has not shown public approval of the IAEA plan to such an extent.  However, skeptics will point to factors like the ones detailed above as a sign that Iran is continuing to stall.

Whatever the case, we will be following this closely in the days ahead.  

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