Iran: Making the Regime-Change Calculation Posted by David Shorr

Having used Robert Kagan as a stand-in for skeptics of engagement more than once, let me give a more measured response to the argument he made today for supporting Iranian regime-change (Pat Barry will give you a snarkier take if you need it). I'll start with the core points of agreement and disagreement. I certainly agree that the success of the Green Revolution would be a great thing, with positive strategic implications. Bob says that if President Obama helps bring it to pass, this alone would secure his foreign policy legacy, so I guess it would be nice to collect on that promisory note. On the other hand, Bob downplays the value of the ongoing nuclear negotiations -- saying "regime change ismore important than any deal the Obama administration might strike with Iran's present government on its nuclear program" -- and I can't really go along with that assessment.

Even more than his WaPo column, the discussion just now between Kagan and some Talk of the Nation listeners helped clarify some tests I would apply for any ramping up of US support of Iranian reformers. Bob had kind words for the administration's diplomatic efforts, saying Obama had "made clear the US isn't the issue; Iran is." Recognizing that we're no longer in the highly sensitive immediate aftermath of the sham elections in June, I think we need to maintain the same concern about playing into the hands of the hard-liners in Iran. Beyond the simple affirmation that the reformers have the sympathy of the American people I'd want to avoid any moves that might make the United States "the issue" in the struggle among Iranians. The wishes of reformist leaders is one important factor.

Then there are the potential trade-offs with the nuclear negotiations. I've heard it argued that support for democratic forces could be mutually reinforcing with the nuclear diplomacy, and I'm open to that. The difficult is an issue that also came up on Talk of the Nation. In disussing sanctions on Iran, Bob said the questions is "sanctions for what?" My concern exactly. If it's a matter of putting added pressure on Iran's current regime, then great. But to the extent that supporting the Green Revolution undercuts pressure for a nuclear deal, that's not a price worth paying.

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