Afghanistan Mission Creep Revisited Posted by Michael Cohen

For some reason, the Washington Post buried Rajiv Chandrasekaran's barn-burner of a piece about the disconnect between the civilian and military leadership on Afghanistan the day after Xmas.  It's worth a re-examination because it speaks to the strategic disconnect that amazingly still defines US policy in Afghanistan:

Nearly a month after Obama unveiled his revised Afghanistan strategy, military and civilian leaders have come away with differing views of several fundamental aspects of the President's new approach. 

What is perhaps most shocking is that we are seeing a bizarre repeat of the situation that played out in the Spring with the civilian and military side having two very different views of what counter-insurgency means:

During a videoconference two days before the speech, Obama made it clear to McChrystal and U.S. Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry that he did not want the additional troops to fuel a broader mission. Speaking to both men from the White House Situation Room, the president told them not to deploy the forces to areas they would not be able to transfer to Afghan security forces by July 2011, according to two senior officials with knowledge of the conversation.

Obama's essential instruction was, according to one of the officials, "Don't bite off more than you can chew. The strategy has fundamentally changed. 

"This is not a COIN strategy," Vice President Biden said on MSNBC last week, using the military's shorthand for counterinsurgency. "This is not 'go out and occupy the whole country.' "

Ok, that all seems well and good, but no one seems to have gotten the memo to the generals:

Although Pentagon strategists and McChrystal's advisers in Kabul are looking at how they can fulfill the White House desire for a less extensive mission, military officials said they are reluctant to strip too much away and weaken an approach that has come to be revered within the ranks as the only way to suppress guerrilla movements.

Reluctant to do what the President had told them to do! Who's in charge here?

Military officials contend that McChrystal does not harbor expansionist aims. They note that he has begun removing troops from remote mountain valleys and concentrating resources on a modest number of key population centers. But the approach in those areas will involve counterinsurgency tactics: Troops will focus on restoring normal patterns of life by trying to keep the Taliban at bay, helping the Afghan government provide basic services to the population and training local security forces.

McChrystal's plan, the senior Pentagon official said, "is still counterinsurgency, regardless of the various agendas people are trying to spin."

How does this keep happening? How is it possible that a mere month after the President concluded a serious review of Afghan policy - and announced a new policy - we have the Vice President saying we're NOT doing COIN and a senior Pentagon officials saying that we ARE doing COIN? Seriously, how is that possible?

Part of the problem is what seems like a real breakdown of the civil-military relationship. The generals seem to be carrying out their own tactical approach in Afghanistan; one that in very significant places is at odds with what the President has decided. For example, if the President told Eikenberry and McChrystal not to deploy forces "to areas they would not be able to transfer to Afghan security forces by July" why was the first military mission post-surge to send troops to Helmand Province? And why are there plans in works for a more significant intervention there when more US troops arrive? Does anyone seriously believe that the US will be able to begin transferring responsibility to the Afghans in Helmand in 18 months? If Obama's message to the military was don't bite off more than you can chew, why are American forces trying to pacify Helmand - a goal that has eluded ISAF and US forces for much of the Afghan conflict.

But it's not all the fault of the military. By trying to be too cute by half on the question of troop withdrawals the White House has left the door open for the military to interpret the mission in their own way:

The ambiguity over the meaning of the July 2011 deadline has generated uncertainty over the president's intent. "Is the surge a way of helping us leave more quickly, or is the timeline a way to help win support for the surge?" asked a senior Democratic staff member in Congress. "Which is the strategy and which is the head-fake? Nobody knows."

 

One senior military officer in Afghanistan said he and his fellow soldiers "don't know if this is all over in 18 months, or whether this is just a progress report that leads to minor changes." "Until they tell us otherwise," the officer said, "we're operating as if the latter is the policy." Although senior-level civilians in the administration emerged from the review process thinking the mission had been circumscribed, senior military officials continue to have a different view. The result, as they see it, is that the White House has embraced McChrystal's original plan.

Like many, I read Rory Stewart's brilliant piece in the New York Review of Books where he offers cautious praise for Obama's approach in Afghanistan. The problem, however, is that wars are not fought in august academic journals - they are fought on the ground and are dependent on the tactical decisions made by commanders. For all the moderation of Obama's speech, which Stewart rightfully praises, in the month since that speech was delivered we are seeing repeated examples of serious disconnect between what the President declared at West Point and what is happening on the ground in Afghanistan. For example: 

• The Pakistanis have made clear that they have no interest in cracking down on Afghan Taliban safe havens in their midst - a key element of the President's plan.    

• The Afghan government lacks the capabilities or inclination to properly support the US mission there.   

• The President's goal of having 30,000 troops in Afghanistan by the middle of 2010 is a pipe dream.   

• There are serious impediments to a true civilian surge in Afghanistan.

And now we read that the military is operating under a very different time frame and tactical approach than the White House. The question now is whether the President and the civilian leadership will be able to ensure that they and the military are on the same page - or more important that the military will do what is has been ordered to do.

If the mission creep we saw this summer -- which led the President to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan - is any indication, my confidence is not high.

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