Wrong Place, Wrong Time (Frame) Posted by Michael Cohen

I spent most of yesterday on a plane back from the West Coast so I'm a bit late to the post-speech analysis party. But I did want to flag Gilles Dorronsoro's comment about the lack of regional prioritization in the President's strategy - and why that might be a problem:

President Obama has announced that the United States will deploy an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, mostly to the Pashtun provinces of Helmand and Kandahar in the south, where the Taliban are in control. Though it suggests a goal of helping the Afghan state weather a Western withdrawal beginning in July 2011, Obama's plan is likely to make the circumstances of the withdrawal more unpleasant.

. . . The new troops will not stay in southern Afghanistan long enough for the Afghan army to establish control there and build functioning government institutions. And, indeed, the presence of foreign troops fighting on behalf of a corrupt government in Kabul only makes that government more unpopular, which helps the Taliban grow more entrenched, even as they take losses.

Obama's speech was just a speech. His point about arming Afghan militias and building security from the ground up is where the country is actually headed. But as the Taliban continue to gain on Kabul from several directions -- including the north, where new troops would make more of a difference -- Obama's plan will make it harder for the government to survive and likely that the United States will leave Afghanistan looking worse than it does now.

This is perhaps my greatest concern about the President's overall strategy; we're going to send the lion's share of troops into the one place where the presence of US soldiers probably most strengthens the cause of the insurgency - and where the lack of a significant Afghan military and political suppot presents the greatest challenge. I understand the desire to go after the Taliban more aggressively (and I'm sympathetic to the notion), but it seems like that should be happening in the North and West and not necessarily in the South . . . at least not for now.

Even harder is squaring this approach with a timetable that says there will be a turnover of security responsibility to the Afghan government in 18 months. The problem I suppose is that if you focus on the "easy" parts of Afghanistan first and then tackle the heavier Pashtun areas later you're there for a lot longer than 18 months. But if you try to do everything at once and pacify the entire country, as Dorronsoro suggests, you run the risk of not necessarily making a decisive dent in the insurgency.

Comments

[debt relief]

haha it is true haha i like how u titled it

[rolex daytona]

If you are looking for a watch to buy,rolex daytona come to solve the problem of the not-so-rich category of people. A rolex daytona replica can be purchased by many of us, due to the accessible price it can have. A fake rolex daytona will always cost only a few hundred dollars.

[muhtar]

Thank you for your sharing.! seslichat seslisohbet

[Ugg london]

This is very beauty article, I like it, thank you!
To the word you may be one person, but to one person you may be the world.

[buy r4]

Hi,
Very informative post.As far as I know Gilles Dorronsoro argued the fraud and low-turnout in the election has undermined Kabul’s legitimacy. Therefore, the U.S. should focus on shifting its focus to the more peaceful northern part of the country and avoid taking on too much responsibility while allowing Afghan institutions to strengthen.

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap coach bags]

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

[cheap coach purses]

Yes, that's cool. The device is amazing! Waiting for your next one!