Iran Sanctions -- Let's Hope Life Doesn't Imitate Simulation Posted by David Shorr

Via Matt Duss and M.J. Rosenberg, it seems momentum may be building for Congressional legislation to pave the way for strengthened unilateral sanctions against Iran, though reports of a Senate vote Tuesday evening may end up being a false alarm. Meanwhile, stories have emerged of a role-playing simulation of the confrontation over Iran's nuclear program conducted by senior experts -- Politico's Laura Rozen gives excerpts from accounts by Gary Sick (a participant) and David Ignatius, whose WaPo column is available in its entirety. One finding: congressional support for unilateral sanctions could undermine current diplomatic efforts, which are focused on multilateral sanctions.

The key passage from the Ignatius column:

The Obama team was confounded by congressional demands for unilateral U.S. sanctions against companies involved in Iran's energy sector. This shot at Iran ended up backfiring, since some of the key companies were from Russia and China -- the very nations whose support the United States needs for strong U.N. sanctions. The Russians and Chinese were so offended that they began negotiating with Tehran behind America's back.

Talk about unintended consequences, yikes. A united front with Russia and China is the key to keeping pressure on Iran, and losing their support at this critical juncture would be a big step backwards. In the debate over sanctions, the questions of whether, when, how, and by whom are worth untangling.

Let's start with Spencer Ackerman's excellent interview with Jeremy Ben-Ami of J Street, which is supporting congressional sanctions legislation. Here's Jeremy giving pro-sanctions arguments that I agree with:

...we really believe that diplomacy is the right approach, but that diplomacy can’t be open-ended. Every one of our statements says we are not opposed to sanctions per se. ... We are ardently opposed to military action. We are deeply supportive of the diplomatic route. But if the diplomatic route is completely disregarded and the offer [rejected] — after probably ten or 20 warnings, they’re practically beyond saying no. They’re sticking a finger in the eye of the world. The U.S. has really tried to find a way to offer them a path to full engagement. There have to be consequences. We can’t just allow that kind of disregard of the international community.

All of which is exactly why the Obama Administration is negotiating with Russia and China at this very moment over multilateral sanctions, which would be more difficult for Iran to resist politically or practically. The name of the game indeed is to clarify the basis for diplomatic progress -- the plan for Iran to ship enriched uranium to Russia and France in exchange for nuclear fuel rods -- and insistently stand our ground together with other influential nations.

That's why I don't agree with Dokhi Fassihian and Trita Parsi (for whom I have great respect), in their assessment of President Obama's policy:

First, the time-frame was too short. Due to pressures from domestic actors as well as US allies in the region, diplomacy was given no more than 12 weeks to make measurable progress. In contrast, US sanctions on Iran have been given more than 20 years to work, and are yet to produce tangible results.

The pressures that dictate this time-frame have to do with Iran's technological progress and keeping Iran from dragging the diplomatic process out. Now that the uranium deal is on the table, there's no necessity of more time; Iran should accept and implement the deal that's on offer.

Another problem with the legislation, alluded to in the above Ignatius quote, is the type of measures (refined petrolium) of the sanctions it focuses. As Defense Secretary Robert Gates stressed earlier this fall, there menu of sanctions options is a "pretty rich list to pick from," beyond energy sector measures to which China is highly likely to object.

Returning to Spencer's interview, I hope Jeremy is right that congress is merely strengthening the president's hand by playing bad cop. At both the international and domestic political levels, brinksmanship must be conducted with care.

Comments

[2010 winter olympics]

Israel has over 200 nuclear warheads. I think that they have done a pretty good job of taking care of themselves so far. They are our ally but they are not necessarily a weakened, desperate nation. Israelies have great strengths and if they need additional strength and support from us, they will get it. They know that whether you do or not....

[racking]

racking
shelving
cold store equipment

professional racking & shelving manufacturer, pallet racking, drive in racking,
cantilever racking, longspan shelving, dexion racking

[muhtar]

Thank you for your sharing.! seslichat seslisohbet

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap coach bags]

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

[rado watches]

If you have PANERAI Watches , I still have my idea to achieve.

[pallet racking]

We all know these years china pallet racking in china develop very fast, now the design capacity of racking is very strong in china.
You can see every kind of china racking in china, includingDrive in racking,
cantilever racking, shelving,Longspan shelving, dexion racking,. We also have very experienced engineer to do the design and instlaation job.
Mezzanine Floor
refrigeration equipment

[ray ban 2010 sunglasses]

Yellow lens of Ray ban wayfarer can 100% filter UV, allowing infrared and 83% visible light through the lens.

Its greatest feature is that you can filter the sun's most dazzling blue.

Sunlight through the atmosphere, the most performance is the blue light, which is why you see the sky is blue. Yellow lens filters blue light, the natural scenery can be seen more clearly. So driving with a yellow lens Ray ban 2010 sunglasses, you can more clearly see from the vehicle.

Ray ban sunglasses sale

ray ban 2010 sunglasses sale

ray ban sunglasses sale

ray ban wayfarer message from http://www.eyewear-rayban.com

[mbt]

I like this site, updated daily articles I fully understood.

[Kodes]

Türkiyenin ilk Hiphop Sitesi Hiphop, Türkçe rap + Gekko G Fan Sitesi Gekko G, Mask animasyon sitesi

[TıkLa-SohbeT]

SesLiSohbet siteleri arasında ekol bir adres SesTonum hemen sohbette başlamak icin SesTonum 'tıklayınız..! SesLiSohbet ve SesLiChaT adreslerinin gözdesi hemen tıklayarak SesLiSohbet yapmaya başlaya bilirsiniz..!

SesTonum
SesLiSohbet
SesLiChaT

[FFXIV Gil]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
Buy aika gold
Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service!

Cheap aika gold
In the 2 years we are in this field , AIKA Goldbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(GM MMO)

[explosion proof light]

We are committed to developing environmentally friendly and energy-saving explosion-proof light, led flashlight, led mining light,spotlight and light towers use of new technologies and materials.

[trollbeads australia]

Can you believe it? Jewelry, have magic.

[冷夜]

professional racking & shelving manufacturer, pallet rackin

[louis vuitton leather bags]

jingruizm

Dispatch of Netease science and technology on July 22 message, gucci outletsthe presiding apparitor Tony Bates of Skype announces now, the hope communicates in speech advertisement is joined in the service. gucci bagsThis is a kind of when Skype increases income new trial. louis vuitton bags

Tony Bates claims the companylouis vuitton outlet is trying a variety of means to let Skype be being finished and value increases of Microsoft when be being bought.

"Apparent, long-term advertisement is varied. " he says, "I am communicating in the attempt inside advertisement, video communicates when long increasing, achieved 27 minutes on average. In so long time, people won't stare at the other side merely, still can look for a lot of things to do. This is our good luck. This is our good luck..

Bates ever held the position of Cisco to be in charge of high, will hold the position of Skype CEO last year in October. He expresses, after Skype is bought with 8.5 billion dollar by Microsoft, he will still hold the position of speech of this one Internet to communicate the director of the service, and Skype will serve as an independent branch to begin the work, independence is enjoyed in Microsoft interior.

Before this, he ever announced, japanese report is connected will begin to become Skype Japan to show ad business partner solely from July.

(Article origin: Netease science and technology reports an author: Mulberry Yu)

[piumini moncler]

Wishing you the best of luck for all your blogging efforts.

[ugg boots]

These Ugg discount store are going nowhere unless Beijing gets really cold! Just as I was prepared to lock the cupboard and throw away the key, things took a turn for the better. I told my sister of my purchase and my misgivings.

[North Face Discount]

I also found it very interesting. In fact after reading, I had to go show the spouse and she enjoyed it as well!

http://www.buynorthfacediscount.org

[lvborse]

Piumini Moncler sono una necessità per il freddo invernale, molte persone vogliono ottenere un Moncler mantenere i loro corpi caldi nel freddo inverno sta arrivando. E molte persone fanno del loro meglio per cercare Sito Ufficiale Moncler.It è il buon senso per voi Conna? Siate marchio Moncler 2012, che è un brand di fama mondiale. E 'famosa per la sua alta qualità e le sue migliori servizi. Devi essere se non l'avete mai sentito parlare di lui, soprattutto perché ci si trova in Francia.Moncler Giubbotti una vera donna non sarebbe mai fuori moda, non solo per una stagione! Non si può ignorare l'esistenza di Moncler uomo.

[lvborse]

Piumini Moncler sono una necessità per il freddo invernale, molte persone vogliono ottenere un Moncler mantenere i loro corpi caldi nel freddo inverno sta arrivando. E molte persone fanno del loro meglio per cercare Sito Ufficiale Moncler.It è il buon senso per voi Conna? Siate marchio Moncler 2012, che è un brand di fama mondiale. E 'famosa per la sua alta qualità e le sue migliori servizi. Devi essere se non l'avete mai sentito parlare di lui, soprattutto perché ci si trova in Francia.Moncler Giubbotti una vera donna non sarebbe mai fuori moda, non solo per una stagione! Non si può ignorare l'esistenza di Moncler uomo.

[Daisy-wu1125]

Ugg boots online have new style boots of this season which have gained great popularity over the world. What do you prepare to do when Christmas Day coming? The best thing is shopping online at the gold time. I suggest people

[akın yapı]

Akın Yapı Firması Olarak Tadilat , banyo dekorasyon ‘u Alnın da Faliyet Gösteren Bir dekorasyon Firmasıdekorasyon Firması ‘yız..Bir Çok Projede Başarılara İmza Atmış,Yılların Kazandırdığı Tecrübeleriyle Hizmetlerini Sürdürmektedir..Akın Yapı Seçkin Çalışan Kadrosu İle Sizlerin İhtiyaçları Dogrultusunda Güzel Zevkli Projelerle Yanınızda Yer Almaktadır…İsterseniz Web Sitemizi Ziyaret Edip Akın Yapı Firmamız Hakkında Daha Fazla Bilgiye Ulaşabilirsiniz….

[my slimmer]

I’ve been looking for something like this! Thanks for sharing this great gülhatmi balı tool!